"ASSESS " - Assessment of the contribution of the TEN and other transport policy measures to the midterm implementation of the White Paper on the European Transport Policy for 2010

Bewertung des Beitrags verkehrspolitischer Maßnahmen (einschließlich der TEN-T-Politik) im Rahmen der Umsetzung der Europäischen Verkehrspolitik für das Jahr 2010.

Applicant:  DG TREN, Directorate General for Energy and Transport (European Commission)

Time Schedule: January 2005 – December 2005

European Commission Mobility & Transport

Final Report 

 

Project Consortium

Consortium leader      

TML, Transport & Mobility Leuven, Belgium

Contributor

TNO, The Netherlands

Contributor

WSP Policy and Research, United Kingdom

Contributor

TRT, Italy

Contributor

Institute for Regional Research, University of Kiel, Germany

Contributor

UG, Poland

Contributor

ITS Leeds, United Kingdom

Contributor

SWOV, The Netherlands

Contributor

DLR Germany

Contributor

IUAS Bad Honnef, Germany

Contributor

ITU, Turkey

 

General Project Objectives

On 12 September 2001, the European Commission published the White Paper “European transport policy for 2010: time to decide”. The White Paper analysed the existing situation with regard to transport and set out an ambitious action programme up to 2010.

The 2001 White Paper planned a mid-term assessment of its own achievements, which was to be launched in 2005. The mid-term assessment is to check whether the targets and objectives are being attained or whether adjustments are needed.

The ASSESS Project has been set up to provide the technical support to the Commission services for this mid-term assessment. The scope of the ASSESS study are the measures and objectives that were stated in the White Paper. In particular, the ASSESS project has assembled all main sources of quantitative  information at the European level to carry out an assessment of both the achievements to date, the possible policy implementation scenarios to the year 2010, and the longer term prospects to the year 2020.

The analysis accounts for the economic, social and environmental consequences of the proposed measures. It provides also a detailed analysis of those effects of EU enlargement likely to affect the structure and performance of the EU transport system.

Chapter II of the final report gives an overview of the implementation of these policies and measures in the EC and the Member States. This chapter also gives an idea to what extend will the White Paper contribute to improving the transport situation in 2010.

Chapter III is the conclusion of the indicator assessment of the White Paper objectives. In this chapter, the White Paper objectives are analyses for four White Paper scenarios in an increasing degree of ambition.

Chapter IV gives the conclusion on the challenges from a changing world, as the EU enlargement, globalization and security, financial issues and the political dimension.

The last chapter V gives the recommendations, based on the assessment of the White Paper measures, the indicator assessment and the challenges in a changing world.

There are three policies that have high degrees of advancement with the implementation of the White Paper policies at the EU level: The development of the Trans-European Transport Networks (TEN-T), policies on developing high quality urban transport and clean and efficient transport.

 

Advancement of implementation activities

  • Improving quality in the road transport sector 
  • Revitalizing the railways
  • Contolling growth in air transport
  • Promoting transport by sea and inland waterway
  • Turning intermodality into reality
  • Building the Trans-European transport network
  • Improving road safety
  • Effective charging for transport
  • Recognizing the rights and obligations of users
  • Developing high-quality urban transport
  • Putting research and technology at the service of clean, efficient transport
  • Managing the effects of globalizations
 
 
 

The EU enlargement

The process of EU enlargement from 15 to 25 countries fostered the development of new transport strategies in the 10 new Member States, including new national transport policies. Implementation plans are heavily focused on the extension of long distance Trans-European Networks to Central and Eastern Europe, with a focus on motorways. The EU enlargement of 2004 makes it more difficult to separate economic growth from transport demand growth.

 

Growth in Transport Demand

The possible trajectories of transport demand growth have been tested using the SCENES European Transport Model, using up to date economic and demographic projections and reasonable assumptions regarding foreign trade growth, fuel prices, passenger and freight user prices, and the trends in freight logistics. Four main policy scenarios have been developed within the ASSESS project, corresponding to different levels of expectations in policy implementation. For the most likely scenario, two alternative tests have been made in order to examine the possible variations in demand growth as a result of the model assumptions on pricing and freight logistic trends. Compared with earlier transport demand forecasts, the ASSESS Project has made use of more recent GDP projections, and has benefited from a longer time series of freight demand observations up to 2003/04.

 

The White Paper objectives: Progress has been made

The different future scenarios considered have an increasing degree of impact, with more ambitious policy implementation producing better outcomes. The accessibility of the regions will increase, the full White Paper implementation leads to a better accessibility of regions than the current implementation level. Implementing the measures of the White Paper is positively affecting the EU economic growth, particularly when marginal effects can be detected, although the impacts on GDP and employment are quite small.

 

Contribution of the Institute for Regional Research (IfR), University of Kiel (CAU)

Project leader: Prof. Dr. Johannes Bröcker

Project staff: Nils Schneekloth, Artem Korzhenevych

Contribution:  CGEurope modelling of the White Paper measures

For the years 2010 and 2020 the effect of implementation of three scenarios (the partial implementation of the White Paper, the full implementation, and the extended scenario) is calculated. The results are interpreted as real income changes in comparison to or ‘do nothing’ reference scenario. The model is dependent on the interregional transport cost data by the SCENES European Transport Model. The input information, that is derived from SCENES costs and flows data, is total transport costs aggregated across commodities by NUTS-2 region pair.