IfR 2001-2016

Beiträge aus dem Institut für Regionalforschung derUniversität zu Kiel

Beitrag Nr. 46 - Wertschöpfungs- und Beschäftigungseffekte als Folge des Ausbaus der Offshore-Windenergie in Norddeutschland
Beitrag Nr. 45 - Wertschöpfungs- und Beschäftigungseffekte  als Folge des Ausbaus Erneuerbarer Energien  in Schleswig-Holstein
Beitrag Nr. 44 - The Fehmarnbelt Fixed Link - Perspectives of a Cross Border Labour Market
Beitrag Nr. 43 - Die Erwerbssituation der Kieler Universitätsabsolventen

Schriften des Institutes für Regionalforschung der Universität zu Kiel

 

Research projects since 2001

Analyse der Übergänge in Beschäftigung in der Arbeitsmarktregion Kiel

IAB Projekt


Projektleitung:

Prof. Dr. Johannes Bröcker und Prof. Dr. Annekatrin Niebuhr

Mitarbeiter:

Dr. Hayo Herrmann, Hendrik Lüth, Dipl.-Volksw. Cornelius Peters und Johannes Puckelwald

Projektstart: 2011

Projektende: 2013

 

Kurzbeschreibung:

Das Arbeitsmarktgeschehen ist durch die kontinuierliche Schaffung neuer Arbeitsplätze und eine fortwährende Auflösung von Beschäftigungsverhältnissen gekennzeichnet. Eine Analyse des auf dem Arbeitsmarkt ablaufenden „Matchings“ von Arbeitskräften und neu besetzten Stellen liefert wichtige Erkenntnisse über die Arbeitsnachfrage, das Arbeitsangebot und mögliche Mismatch-Probleme am Arbeitsmarkt. Eine detaillierte Untersuchung von Übergängen in Beschäftigung kann daher wertvolle Informationen für die Vermittlung von Arbeitslosen oder arbeitsuchenden Personen liefern. Aufgrund der strukturellen Disparitäten zwischen den Regionen in Deutschland sind nicht unerhebliche Unterschiede auf der regionalen Ebene zu erwarten. Eine entsprechende Analyse basiert daher auf funktional abgegrenzten regionalen Arbeitsmärkten, um regionalen Besonderheiten Rechnung zu tragen. Die hier genannte Studie befasst sich beispielhaft mit dem Arbeitsmarkt der Region Kiel.

Im Rahmen dieser Studie werden Übergänge aus Arbeitslosigkeit oder Arbeitssuche in eine sozialversicherungspflichtige Beschäftigung im Zeitraum 2005-2010 für die Arbeitsmarktregion Kiel analysiert. Die Region umfasst die kreisfreien Städten Kiel und Neumünster sowie die Landkreise Rendsburg-Eckernförde und Plön. Die Analysen werden für die gesamte Arbeitsmarktregion und die vier Kreise durchgeführt, sie sind regional z.T. weiter gegliedert in 21 Teilregionen. Sachlich sind die Befunde nach Wirtschaftszweigen, Berufen und Qualifikation der Beschäftigten bzw. nach dem Status der Arbeitslosen/Arbeitsuchenden gegliedert. Als statistische Basis steht eine Verknüpfung der Arbeitsmarktstatistik der Bundesagentur (Arbeitslose, Arbeitsuchende usw.) mit der Beschäftigtenstatistik (Sozialversicherungspflichtig Beschäftigte) zur Verfügung.

Publikationen zum Projekt:

Analyse der Übergänge in Beschäftigung - Befunde für die Teilregion Neumünster

Analyse der Übergänge in Beschäftigung - Befunde für die Teilregion Plön

Analyse der Übergänge in Beschäftigung - Befunde für die Teilregion Rendsburg Eckernförde

Analyse der Übergänge in Beschäftigung - Befunde für die Teilregion Stadt Kiel

 

Siehe die auch die Webseite des IAB

Baltic Transport Outlook 2030

Time schedule:
June 2010 to December 2011

Applicant: Trafikverket (Swedish Transport Administration) and European Commission
Webpage: http://www.baltictransportoutlook.eu/index.php?main=start.html
Report: Main Task 2: Drivers of transport demand and supply

Project consortium:
Main Partners:
Tetraplan AS, Denmark
Ramböll-Sweden
Ramböll-Finland
Progtrans AG, Switzerland
Christian-Albrecht-University, Germany
Hamburg Port Consulting, Germany
Centre for Maritime Studies, Finland

Subcontractors:
Rapidis ApS (DK),
DTU Transport (DK),
VGTU (LT)
Gdansk University (PL).


Consortium leader: Tetraplan AS, Copenhagen, Denmark


General project objectives
The overall aim of the project is to achieve better prerequisites for national long term infrastructure planning in the Baltic Sea region to make the region more accessible and competitive. The Baltic Transport Outlook will contribute to:

  • A common view of the region’s development concerning transport flows and economic growth
  • A joint awareness of future challenges and potentials
  • Better knowledge exchange of national and regional transport systems.


The core of the project is a study with the following elements:

  • Describing current transport flows, infrastructure status, bottlenecks of both infrastructural and administrative character and the use of the transport system in the Baltic Sea region as well as into and from the Baltic Sea.
  • Including all modes of transport: road, rail, maritime, civil aviation and pipelines, for both goods and passengers.
    Making forecasts/scenarios for 2016 and year 2030.
    Recommending measures for managers of the Baltic Transport system – short term and long term.
  • Ensuring that the results, based on high quality data, could be adapted in different countries' national transport strategies.
  • Achieving synergies within the framework of the Northern Dimension and other relevant EU projects.

Contribution of the Institute for Regional Research (IfR), University of Kiel

Project Leader at the Institute: Dr. Artem Korzhenevych

The IfR participates in the development of growth scenarios for the Baltic Sea Region and applies the trade prediction model to produce transport forecasts in Task 2 (Drivers of transport demand and supply).

TEN-CONNECT 2

Supplementary model calculations supporting TEN-T network planning and impact assessment

 

Time schedule:
December 2010 to June 2011

Applicant: European Commission (DG MOVE)

Final Report

Project consortium:

Main Partners:
Tetraplan AS, Denmark
Christian-Albrecht-University, Germany
BMT Transport Solutions, UK
DTU Transport, Denmark
ISIS, Italy
Mcrit, Spain
Rapidis, Denmark
University of Leeds, UK

Subcontractors:
NEA, the Netherlands

Consortium leader: Tetraplan AS, Copenhagen, Denmark

General project objectives

  • Task 1 is dedicated to a recalibration of the TRANS-TOOLS model. Application of the model in many different circumstances has lead to identification of areas where the model is providing results differing substantially from the reality. Several reasons are identified for that like inaccurate data for zones and networks, missing information on transport flows, but also modelling issues like missing access to databases which can serve as a basis for model estimation, faulty cost and time data, different weight on the different transport modes related to available data, etc.
  • Task 2 applies the recalibrated model for new forecasts for 2030 in order to identify core networks for road and rail for the EU. However, the ToR underlines the need to carry out an impact assessment in accordance with Commission directions on the three different options for the future TEN-T, ranging in option 1 from the present comprehensive network and priority projects, option 2 only priority projects and in option3 a comprehensive network and on top of that core networks for the different transport modes.

 

Contribution of the Institute for Regional Research (IfR), University of Kiel

Project Leader at the Institute: Dr. Artem Korzhenevych

IfR applies the CGEurope model to quantify the regional effects (GDP and accessibility changes) of implementing different concepts of new priority transport network in the EU.

"The Fehmarnbelt Fixed Link: Regional Development Perspectives "

Feste Querung über den Fehmarnbelt: Regionale Entwicklungsperspektiven

 

Time Schedule: October 2009 – April 2010

Applicant: Femern A/S, Copenhagen, Denmark

Final Report:


The Final Report is available in EnglishGerman and Danish language.

The chapters contributed by the Institute for Regional Research (IFR), can be found in No. 44 "Beiträge aus dem Institut für Regionalforschung der Universität zu Kiel": "The Fehmarnbelt Fixed - Link Perspectives of a Cross Border Labour Market".

Within this report, the following two sub-elements have been prepared by Kiel University (Institute for Regional Research):

Cross Border Labour Market (Hayo Herrmann, Johannes Bröcker, Artem Korzhenevych).

Cross Border Mobility (Artem Korzhenevych, Johannes Bröcker, Hayo Herrmann).

Another sub-element has been prepared by Kiel University together with the University of Copenhagen:

Business Clusters (Hayo Herrmann, Christian Wichmann Matthiessen).


Project Consortium:

Jönköping International Business School, Sweden
Department of Geography & Geology, University of Copenhagen, Denmark 
Department of Intercultural Communication and Management, Copenhagen Business School, Denmark
Institute for Regional Research, Kiel University, Germany
ViTiS – Knowledge Communication, Denmark´s Technical University


Consortium Leader

Christian Wichmann Matthiessen, Department of Geography & Geology, University of Copenhagen.


Background and Purpose of the Study

Background for the study is a long-term vision of the Femern Belt Region, starting 2010, called forth by the construction, start-up and operation of the fixed Femern Belt Link – a vision of a true cross-border region where people move freely from one side of the Femern Belt to the other, not only for holidays, but also to work, study or shop and for social contacts, and where firms cooperate and act on both sides of the Femern Belt.
 

Project Elements and Structure of the Final Report:

Introduction 
Summary
Facts and Figures
Infrastructure, Traffic and Logistics 
The Role of the Cities - a Global Perspective
Cross Border Labour Market
Cross Border Mobility
Business Clusters
The Scientific World: Centres, Networks, Development Opportunities
The Fixed Link's Potential Effects on Property Prices 
The Cultural Sector
Values and Attitudes of the Young Generation


Contribution of the Institute for Regional Research, CAU

The whole study is structured into different subareas, where the Institute for Regional Research (CAU) carries main responsibility for the analysis of barriers and incentives characterizing the cross-border labour market, for scenarios of cross-border commuting as well as for the analysis of long-term labour market potentials. In a second subarea, “Clusters”, the Institute for Regional Research (CAU) cooperated with Christian Wichmann Matt­hiessen, Dptm. of Geography & Geology, University of Copenhagen, who delivered facts and valuations from the Danish and Swedish side. These findings have been related with the corresponding results for the German side of the Femernbelt Region, Schleswig-Hol­stein and Ham­burg in particular.

Project Leader at the Institute for Regional Research: Prof. Dr. Johannes Bröcker

Project Staff (Research): Dr. Artem Korzhenevych, Dr. Hayo Herrmann


Cross-Border Labour Market

The empirical fundament are data about cross-border commuting (daily or weekly) and migration over the last years, the current situation and future commuting potential between different parts of the Fehmarnbelt Region, particularly commuting across the Femern Belt. Commuting figures have been analyzed against the background of commuting numbers at the Danish-German land border (Flensburg–Aabenraa) and the Øresund Region. We discuss how barriers limit cross-border labour market connections and – on the other side – how differences across the border encourage commuting and migration (different trade cycle, income or labour market conditions, housing market differences, different tax laws etc.).

This knowledge base helps to evaluate prospective cross-border labour market integration and the impact of the fixed Fehmarnbelt link on building a common cross-border labour market. The strategies for the implementation of a common cross-border regulation framework will benefit from the experience of other cross-border regions with long experience and high integration level, e.g. at the Dutch-German border, the Danish-German land border or the Øresund region.


Clusters: Potential New Interaction

Empirical fundament has been a survey of present technological and industrial clusters in Schleswig-Holstein and Hamburg (survey by Institute for Regional Research, Kiel) and in Denmark and the Øresund Region (survey by Copenhagen University), including an overview of current cluster management and political monitoring as well as of new perspectives.

In the second step, we attended to actual and potential cluster links on both sides of the Femern Belt: Where are technological and industrial complementarities? Is the fixed Femern Bælt link able to accelerate potentials? In particular, we keep an eye on technological fields, such as the life science and health sector, logistics or food economy. 

A table of important factors for each cluster in Schleswig-Holstein / Hamburg is available in English and German language.


 

"TEN-CONNECT": Traffic Flow: Scenario, Traffic Forecast and Analysis of Traffic on the TEN-T, Taking into Consideration the External Dimension of the European Union

Traffic Flow: Scenario, Traffic Forecast and Analysis of Traffic on the TEN-T, Taking into Consideration the External Dimension of the European Union

Analyse und Prognose der Verkehrsströme des transeuropäischen Netzwerkes TEN-T, unter Berücksichtigung der Nachbarländer der Europäischen Union

Time schedule: 
September 2007 to December 2009

Applicant: DG TREN, Directorate General for Energy and Transport (European Commission)

Final Report

Project consortium:

Main Partners:

Tetraplan AS, Copenhagen, Denmark 
Centre for Traffic & Transport, Technical University of Denmark, Denmark 
Rapidis, Denmark
BMT – Transport Solutions, Hamburg, Germany 
Institute for System Integrating Studies, Italy
MCRIT, Spain 
Institute for Regional Research, University of Kiel, Germany
SYSTEMA, Greece 
Institute for Transport Studies, Leeds University, UK 

Subcontractors:

Ramböll-Finland, Finland 
University of Belgrade, Serbia 
Informi GIS, Denmark 
Sudop, Czech Republic 
Technical University of Vilnius, Lithuania
University of Szczecin, Poland, 

Consortium leader:    Tetraplan AS, Copenhagen, Denmark

General project objectives

The TEN Connect consortium recognises the need for a uniform and coherent tool to assess the major transport corridors in EU27 and their extension into the neighbouring countries and to other major trade partners. The tool will comprise an updated traffic model covering all modes in the EU27 and the neighbouring countries in detail and the major trade partners with a lower level of detail. Furthermore the assessment tool will comprise a model for assessment of economic, environmental and social impacts of in-frastructure and other major improvements in the transport system following the Commissions guidelines. With this coherent assessment tool an assessment of the major trans-port corridors in EU27 and the neighbouring countries will be evaluated. 

The TEN Connect consortium will use TRANS-TOOLS as the basic transport model for the assessments. TRANS-TOOLS provides forecasts for all modes including inter-modal transport chains both for passenger and freight flows. 

The TRANS-TOOLS model will be updated: The coverage of Bulgaria and Romania and several of the neighbouring countries in the current version of the TRANS-TOOLS is rather fragmented and needs to be improved. Moreover, the trade model, forming part of TRANS-TOOLS, will be changed to a further development of the CGEurope model. The results of the study will be applied to the forthcoming revision of the TEN Guidelines in 2010. 

The TEN Connect consortium is made up of companies who have been active in strategic analyses of the infrastructure connecting the EU and the neighbouring countries, and in analysis of a number of the present 30 priority projects. Therefore, there is considerable knowledge concerning the infrastructure, both in the EU and in the neighbouring countries within the members of the consortium.

The study is not only focused on freight transport but passenger transport should also be considered in the evaluation. Likewise it is stressed that the main topic for the analyses is infrastructure connecting the old and new EU countries, connecting the new EU countries with each other and connecting the EU with the neighbouring countries. It attaches im-mense importance to bottlenecks related to poor and damaged infrastructure, which is an obvious problem in some of the new EU countries, but even more in the neighbouring countries. 

 

Main research fields

 

Task 1 Traffic forecasts for 2020 and 2030

Forecast for the future traffic flows in EU and the neighbouring countries for 2020 and 2030 with particular focus on flows between old and new Member States, between new Member States and between EU and the neighbouring countries. 

The analysis will cover all transport modes, both freight and passenger traffic on links and through nodes with a focus on the TEN-T network. To provide this the consortium applies the TRANS-TOOLS model in combination with the existing CGEurope model and fore-casts which encompass the neighbouring countries. Therefore, the base year in the TRANS-TOOLS model needs to be updated to 2005, based on an in-depth analysis of current traffic volumes and the development from 2000 to 2005. 

Driving forces for trade, traffic and transport development will be assessed, e.g. economic growth, future trade patterns, changes in production patterns (outsourcing), trends in leisure and holiday patterns, transport pricing policy, fuel prices development, or pricing of climate gasses.

Based on this assessment, the baseline situation and 2-3 scenarios for the situation in 2020 and 2030 will be defined following a dialogue with the Commission. The baseline will be a “do nothing” scenario including already agreed infrastructure and policy meas-ures and in line with the current trends. The 2-3 other scenarios will describe alternative developments illustrating trend shifts The sum of scenarios will illustrate the expected scope of the possible future. 

The TRANS-TOOLS model will provide forecasts for all modes for 2020 and 2030 in the baseline and the scenarios for all modes for both freight and passenger transport with particular focus on transport between old and new Member States, between the new Member States and between EU and neighbouring countries. An analysis will be made to asses of the influence of the basic assumptions and the policy measures in the scenarios on the traffic flows. Flows will be illustrated and visualised on maps with restrictions caused by the available infrastructure but also in an imaginary situation without any infra-structure capacity restrictions. These maps will provide a first indication of the infrastruc-ture based bottlenecks in the system, to be further analysed in task 3 in the project. 

 

Task 2 – Identification of major transnational axes

Results from the TRANS-TOOLS model are used to identify corridors that connect several member states and connect member states with neighbouring countries and other main trading partners.

 

Task 3 – Identification of bottlenecks

A way of identifying bottlenecks is to make two runs with the TRANS-TOOLS model, one with no capacity constrains and the other with capacity constraints and viewing the result-ing flow differences. Constraints and bottlenecks can be related to physical conditions of the road or railway and also to border crossing problems, operability problems and other administrative and technical operational problems related to the use of infrastructure as well as to environmental bottlenecks.

 

Task 4 - Assessment of the economic, environmental and social impacts of policy and infrastructure packages

This task sets out to assess at least five different infrastructure investment packages with different total costs aiming at removing the most pressing bottlenecks identified in task 3 and contributing most to Single Market, cohesion and trade at the EU level.

 

 

Contribution of the Institute for Regional Research (IfR), University of Kiel

 

Project Leader at the Institute: Prof. Dr. Johannes Bröcker

Project Staff (Research): Artem Korzhenevych (M.A.), Marie-Catherine Riekhof

 

The IfR will apply the CGEurope model and will improve the TRANS-TOOLS trade model. The IfR will also participate in the evaluation carried out in task 2 and task 4. 

 

"TRANSvisions": Report on Transport Scenarios with a 20- and 40- Year Horizon

Szenarien regionaler Verkehrsströme in Europa in den nächsten 20 bzw. 40 Jahren


Time schedule:
January 2008 - May 2009   


Applicant:
DG TREN - Directorate General for Energy and Transport (European Commission)


Final Report
Final Report (Executive Summary)

Project consortium:

Main Partners:

Tetraplan AS, Copenhagen, Denmark
Institute for System Integrating Studies, Italy (ISIS)
MCRIT, Spain
Institute for Transport Studies, Leeds University, UK
Institute for Regional Research, University of Kiel, Germany
BMT – Transport Solutions, Hamburg, Germany
Centre for Traffic & Transport, Technical University of Denmark, Denmark
SYSTEMA, Greece


Consortium leader: Tetraplan AS, Copenhagen, Denmark

General project objectives

The study will illustrate the scope of future development for the EU27, candidate and neighbouring countries, focusing on the impacts for potential EU enlargement, world trade and globalisation on the future transport demand. Based on a number of scenarios, the study will suggest long-term objectives for the European transport policies, to meet existing Commission policy statements as well as the Community “acquis”. The scenarios will be developed so they outline the scope of different future paths in 2010, 2012, 2020, 2030 and 2050. 

 


Main research fields

To quantify potential and possible future transport developments and to outline long-term policy objectives a number of scenarios building on well established main drivers need to be developed. 

The consortium will use the TRANS-TOOLS model as the transport model in the study. The newly updated TRANS-TOOLS is the most comprehensive and up to date model cov­ering the area of the EU in great detail and can provide forecasts for all modes and a detail that enables detailed case studies to be carried out.  

The TRANS-TOOLS model is currently being updated and refined by the consortium. In the new version it will have a much better coverage of the EU25 candi­date and neighbouring countries. Furthermore TRANS-TOOLS will be updated by a further development of the CG Europe model. Also a new passenger demand model will add to the accuracy of the improved TRANS-TOOLS model. Lastly the updated TRANS-TOOLS model addresses the internalisation of external costs, thus giving a more accurate picture of the scope for policy changes.

 

Task 1 Qualitative analysis 

Task 1 will provide the scenarios that will form the basis for the policy recommendations of the project. Task 1 will also provide an overview of the most relevant existing statistical and informa­tional gaps that will influence the predictions of the future, an clarify the assumptions that will have to be made to compensate for these gaps of two scenarios, a) an optimistic scenario, resulting from the combination of the positive impacts with the higher predictabil­ity; b) a pessimistic scenario in which the negative impacts of the most important drivers will take the main role. Depending on the results, an intermediate scenario could also be defined in order to complete the picture.

Also a number of scenarios will be defined: 

  •   Business as usual  
  •   Policy packages needed to fulfil the Union’s climate change targets for 2020 and 2050 (back-casting) 
  •   Two possible scenarios 
  •   A number of extreme scenarios to outline the scope of transport development 
  •   and at least include a priority to competitiveness and a priority to environmental 
  •   protec­tion scenarios.   

 

Task 2 Quantitative analysis 

The main outcome of Task 1 is the results on transport demand just to check the consistency of each scenario. To validate the consistency of the qualitative scenarios, and to translate the scenarios into qualitative ones that can be run on the TRANS-TOOLS model.

 

Task 3 Policy synthesis  

The main outcome of the policy synthesis will be a number of policy recommendations for the European Transport Policy based on the challenges and implications of the possible future transport demand developments. Task 3 will be focused on “translating” the results of the runs of the scenarios into policy recommendations by identifying options that the policy-makers should consider. Added to this analysis will be a number of “unexpected” potential future world devel­opments that could have a severe impact on transport policy, like natural disasters, terror­ism, worldwide recession or the invention of any currently unforeseen technology. All are developments that could drastically change the desire to travel or influence purchasing behaviour. Based on the analysis a number of long-term objectives for the European Transport Policy will be identified. Special focus will be put on trade patterns due to the enlargement of the union and on other possible future develop­ments in EU policies that could have a major effect on transport demands e.g. environ­mental or social policy.   

 

Task 4 Validation 

The results of the tasks will be validated through: An Internal Expert Group, an Expert Seminar and a Stakeholder Confer­ence.  

 

Time plan and resources

The time plan is limited by a number of milestones. The full project must be finalised within 14 months from the starting date. The time plan schedules 5 reports, 5 meetings with the Commission, and two external events: an Expert Seminar and a Stakeholder Conference.

Resources will be carried out by the consortium led by Tetraplan A/S (TP) from Denmark (see above). 

 

Contribution of the Institute for Regional Research (IfR), University of Kiel

 

Project Leader at the Institute: Prof. Dr. Johannes Bröcker

Project Staff (Research): Artem Korzhenevych (M.A.)

Institute for Regional Research (IfR) will play an important role in the identification and analysis of relevant projects and main drivers that will form the bases for task 1. In task 3 IfR will provide the policy­ impact analysis (task 3.3) summing up the policy implications of the scenarios and the case studies. 

 

"REFIT":Refinement and test of sustainability indicators and tools with regard to European Transport policies

Verbesserung und Test von Nachhaltigkeitsindikatoren und -strategien vor dem Hintergrund der EU Verkehrspolitik 

 

Sixth Framework Programme Priority 8 - Policy-orientated Research

Applicant: DG TREN, Directorate General for Energy and Transport (European Commission)

Time Schedule: April 2006 - November 2008

REFIT Homepage
Deliverables/Interim Reports
Final Report

 

Project consortium

The REFIT Project consortium consists of 6 partners based in Germany, the Netherlands, Italy and Belgium. The project work is divided into 7 work packages. The project co-ordination is carried out by the Nederlandse Organisatie voor Toegepast Natuurwetenschappelijk Onderzoek (TNO), Delft.

Participants


  • Nederlandse Organisatie voor Toegepast Natuurwetenschappelijk onderzoek, Netherlands
  • Trasporti e territorio, Italy
  • Transport & Mobiliteit Leuven, Belgium
  • Institutio di Studi per l'Integrazione dei Sistemi, Italy
  • Institute for Regional Research , University of Kiel, Germany
  • Universität Stuttgart, Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung, Germany

General project objectives

REFIT aims at:

  1. Providing clear linkages between tools and expertise on the one hand and European transport policy objectives and indicators on the other hand.
  2. Completing the modelling tool box that can provide data for sustainability indicators
  3. Providing a rigorous assessment of policy packages, using the developed tool box

 

The TRANSFORUM project is currently showing that much work has been done on methods and model development in the Fourth, Fifth and Sixth framework of the European Commission and the combinations of models may be capable to execute complex ex-ante evaluations of European transport policies. Three of the most advanced models on the European scale are the SCENES-model, a multimodal network based transport model that simulates passenger and freight transport at European scale, the TREMOVE model that models environmental impact of transport policies and the CGEurope-model, a computable general equilibrium model that models economic impacts of transport policies. In addition the Commission has initiated a new network modelling study TRANS-TOOLS which aims at including amongst others the new member states (this project recently started and it is unsure whether results can be applied in full detail in REFIT).

The combination of these three models, as we propose in REFIT, offers a particular strong quantitative tool that is able to cover many of the aspects needed to evaluate most of the transport policies and measures proposed in the White Paper. There have been previous projects where the three models were successfully lined together (SCENES and TREMOVE in the TREMOVE project for DG ENV, SCENES and CGEurope in the IASON research project during the Fifth Framework Programme) and in addition these three models are the modelling core of the mid-term evaluation of the 'White Paper on transport: time to decide' which will take place during the year 2005.

However, during these previous projects and during the development of the project proposal of the mid-term evaluation of the white paper, several gaps in the expertise and tools to quantify important indicators occurred. That is why REFIT will not only match these three models with sustainability indicators but REFIT will also complete the existing modelling tool box by enhancing the current models with expertise built up during previous EU-projects like for example IASON (spatial economic impacts), EXTERN-E (external impacts) and IMAGINE (noise), TRANS-TOOLS (networks, TEN's level). A first outline of the themes on which REFIT will develop evaluation modules on top of, or within, the existing framework of SCENES/TREMOVE/CGEUROPE are:

  • regional development impacts of accessibility, particularly for peripheral regions and countries,
  • fair competition between modes and the extent to which external costs are internalised,
  • (un)employment; the contribution of individual transport policies to local economies in terms of regional job growth,
  • health impacts of noise and air-pollution and quality of life for citizens
  • transport safety and risk reduction,
  • equity issues and income distribution impacts of mobility.
 

The selection of these focus indicators is based on 1) the knowledge gaps experienced by the consortium while writing the project proposal that will support the mid-term evaluation of the White Paper on transport and 2) the themes and indicators that were assigned to be of priority interest by a group of policy Makers during a workshop organised by the SUMMA project.

Developing tools implies also testing and validating them, TRANS-TOOLS will have a role in this process. In addition REFIT will use the developed tool box to make a Strategic Sustainability Assessment of various policy packages of priority interest, in terms of the relevant policy targets for Europe. Sensitivity analysis will be applied to validate the analytical soundness of the tool box.

 

Contribution of the Institute for Regional Research, University of Kiel (CAU)

Project leader: Prof. Dr. Johannes Bröcker

Project staff: Nils Schneekloth, Artem Korzhenevych (project research)

The Institute for Regional Research is work package leader of work package 3 dealing with the economic aspects of sustainability. The Institute for Regional research will deal with the tasks of developing the economic evaluation module, the methodology to forecast the impacts of transport policies on the spatial distribution of economic activity in Europe and extending the CGEurope model by incorporating an imperfect labour market in the model.

The impacts on spatial distribution of economic activity in Europe
Transport policies affect the spatial distribution of economic activity due to their impact on transport costs. CGE analysis is a suitable up to date approach to cover the direct and indirect effects through different channels on the demand and supply side within one single theoretically consistent framework. The theoretical background is the general equilibrium theory of modern microeconomics. The present version of CGEurope has a static character as well as it is unable to take factor movements induced by transport cost changes into account. It is therefore intended to extend the present framework by a methodological innovation, which is to set up a dynamic version of CGEurope. In this dynamic version it is possible to compare time paths of different policy scenarios rather than only one-shot comparisons of states of the economy. The theoretical background for modelling dynamics is the theory of investment with forward-looking agents.

Forecasting the impacts on regional unemployment in Europe
An important indicator needed to evaluate the economic and social impact of transport policy is unemployment. It is vital to study this impact on a regional scale for two regions: first, unemployment rates vary widely between regions within the EU and there is therefore more concern about unemployment effects in some regions than in others; second, the effects of transport policies on unemployment differ between regions, depending on the spatial distribution of cost changes and on regional labour market conditions. Regional employment an unemployment effects will also be studied by the CGEurope model. The present version of CGEurope does not allow for modelling endogenous reactions of unemployment. The unemployment rate is by now regarded as a natural rate and the model covers the long term reaction of the labour market, keeping the natural rate constant. Hence, only wages, not unemployment react on labour demand changes induced by transport policies. This approach has to be changed within this project by introducing sluggish wage adjustment into the model, allowing for wage as well as employment/unemployment responses within this framework.

 

"GRACE": Generalisation of Research on Accounts and Cost Estimation

Bestandsaufnahme und Fortschreibung der Forschung über Rechnungswesen und Kostenschätzung im Transportsektor

 

Sixth Framework Programme Priority [Sustainable Surface Transport]


Applicant: DG TREN Directorate General for Energy and Transport (European Commission)
 
Time Schedule: 

July 2005 - March 2008

Homepage of GRACE
Final Report

 

Project consortium

The GRACE Project consists of 15 partners, which are all based in the EU. The project work is divided into 7 work packages. The project co-ordination is carried out by the Institute for Transport Studies at the University of Leeds.

The consortium

Participant name

 Country

Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds           

UK

VTI

Sweden

University of Antwerp

Belgium

DIW

Germany

ISIS

Italy

Katholieke University of Leuven

Belgium

adpC

Belgium

Aristotle University of Thessalonika

Greece

BUTE

Hungary

Institute for Regional Research (IfR), University of Kiel

Germany

Ecoplan

Switzerland

IER University of Stuttgart

Germany

TNO Inro

Netherlands

EIT, University of Las Palmas

Spain

University of Gdansk

Poland

 

General project objectives

GRACE aims to support the development of sustainable transport systems by facilitating implementation of transport pricing systems that reflect the costs of infrastructure use.  Its objectives are:

  • to undertake new case study research to address gaps in the existing level of knowledge of marginal social costs in road and rail transport – particular attention will be given to specific aspects, namely infrastructure wear and tear, road congestion, rail scarcity costs, accidents, air pollution and global warming, noise nuisance and environmental costs in sensitive  areas.
  • to undertake new case study research to address gaps in the existing level of knowledge of marginal social costs in air and water borne transport – particular attention will be given to all cost categories;
  • to develop and refine the methods of using transport accounts to monitor the implementation of transport pricing reform in an enlarged Europe – in particular to apply results from case studies to split between fixed and variable costs, to close gaps in the accounts, especially for air transport and waterborne transport and to provide qualitative and quantitative inputs for the generalisation of marginal cost case studies (cost drivers);
  • to undertake innovative research on the issue of the appropriate degree of complexity in transport charges, to provide guidance on the effective trade off between pricing systems that give appropriate incentives by portraying variations in marginal social cost in time and space in detail and pricing systems that are easily understood and acted upon.
  • to provide clear guidance on  the marginal social cost of the different modes of transport in specific circumstances and on simple and transparent methods for determining charges - this will involve bringing together results of previous research on costs, cost drivers and cost functions and the production of a software tool designed to enable derivation of costs and charges  even in situations where detailed analysis does not exist.
  •  to refine the use of models to address the broad socio-economic impacts of pricing reform – particular attention will be given to modal shares, accidents, sensitive areas, regional economics and equity issues.
  • to draw clear conclusions and recommendations for policy and for research in the field of transport infrastructure costs and charges.

 

These objectives will be pursued within a set of six inter-related workpackages, one per objective, each lead by internationally recognised experts in the field and involving a highly experienced team.  In addition, there will be a workpackage dedicated to project management and another to synthesising the overall project conclusions and recommendations.

The research will contribute to strengthening the scientific and technological capacities needed for Europe to be able to implement a model of sustainable development in the short and long terms.  The proposed project integrates the social, economic and environmental dimensions of sustainability and contributes to international efforts to mitigate the adverse trends in global change by providing the research required to facilitate a step change in the efficiency of the transport sector. 

 

Relevance to the objectives of the addressed priority thematic area

 

The goals of the project are highly relevant to the objectives of this thematic priority.  The research will contribute to strengthening the scientific and technological capacities needed for Europe to be able to implement a model of sustainable development in the short and long terms.  It will provide policy-makers with new and refined information on the costs of transport infrastructure use and on the presentation and use of this cost information within transport accounts so as to enable policy-makers to develop and implement transport policy which meets with the principles of sustainable development.  In particular, the cost information will facilitate the implementation and monitoring of more fair, efficient and sustainable charges that are based on costs, within the transport sector.  It will also provide means of generalising cost research so as to estimate transport costs where data is insufficient or inappropriate for the task.  It will provide new and refined methodological insights into the estimation of transport costs which can be implemented on a more wide-scale basis throughout the EU at the national, regional and local levels in order to support transport policy-making.

The project integrates the social, economic and environmental dimensions of sustainability.  The cost estimation and accounts work examines the economic and social costs of transport, encompassing environmental costs as a major component.  Furthermore, the investigation of complex charging systems examines directly the trade-off between economic principles and issues of social acceptability and behaviour.  A third key way in which the social, economic and environmental aspects are integrated is within the work to analyse the socio-economic impacts of more fair and efficient transport charges, based on the costs imposed.

The project contributes to international efforts to mitigate the adverse trends in global change by providing the research required to facilitate a step change in the efficiency of the transport sector.  Transport is one of the most significant factors affecting trends in global warming, population shift, development and land-use planning so a more efficient transport sector – where costs, benefits and charges are better understood and reflected within policy – contributes to the mitigation of these trends.  International, national, regional and local policy-makers will be able to draw upon the project’s findings when developing and implementing transport policy, so that policy promotes greater efficiency within the sector and, ultimately, promotes increased sustainability.

Furthermore, the project objectives are closely related to the priorities of the Call for Proposals, and to the objectives of the Common Transport Policy.  There is a clear emphasis on intermodality through comprehensive coverage of passenger and freight modes.  The project provides strategies and information for development of sustainable transport policy solutions.  Due to the project’s emphasis on building upon the state-of-the-art and delivering quantitative results, it has a clear policy-driven agenda.

By providing a sound empirical basis for charging policy development using information on all financial, economic and environmental impacts, the project will support the development of sustainable, economically efficient and safe transport systems.

 

The expected results corresponding to the main project outputs are:

  • The marginal cost estimates – will support the work of the Commission, being used to inform the structure and level of charges; in the longer term this will result in more fair and efficient charging systems.
  • The development of transport accounts – will make transparent the relationship between costs, revenues and benefits, providing policymakers in transport and finance departments at the national, regional and local levels with enhanced information on which to determine the future direction of transport sector charging;
  • Guidance on levels of complexity – will provide policy-makers with enhanced information on whether and where it is appropriate to reflect the complex nature of marginal cost estimates within the levels and structures of charging regimes;
  • The framework for generalisation – will inform policymakers about the drivers of transport costs and guidance on charge-setting where full estimation of costs is not appropriate; and
  • Guidance on impacts – will provide policy-makers enhanced information and forecasts of the socio-economic impacts of introducing more fair and efficient charging for transport infrastructure use.

 

Contribution of the Institute for Regional Research (IfR), University of Kiel


Project leader: Prof. Dr. Johannes Bröcker

Project staff: Nils Schneekloth, Artem Korzhenevych (project research)

The Institute for Regional Research as partner of the GRACE consortium contributes to work package 6, which aims at testing the socio-economic effects of different pricing and investment rules: partial equilibrium effects, general equilibrium effects, spatial effects (different regions, peripheral vs. central regions, sensitive vs. other areas), and equity effects, to explore the coordination of transport policies between different government levels and to refine existing modelling techniques. The work on the spatial computable general equilibrium model, CGEurope, in this projects aims at estimating regional employment effects resulting from policy scenarios on marginal cost transport pricing. One of the biggest political concerns about possibly harmful effects generated by marginal cost pricing is that peripheral areas suffering from high unemployment rates will carry an extra burden if private transport costs increase due to internalising external cost in form of higher private transport costs. In fact, as unemployment rates vary strongly across regions in Europe, the regional employment impacts can be considerable and in some case undesirable. The factor market module of the model will be improved, that two factors will be introduced, labour and a combined service of all other factors and second, the labour market has to be modelled as a market not perfectly cleared by flexible wages. This is modelled by assuming a wage curve for each region, an inverse relationship between wage and unemployment.

 

"FUNDING": FUNDING Infrastructure: Guidelines for Europe

Richtlinien für einen europäischen Verkehrsinfrastrukturfonds


Applicant: DG TREN, Directorate General for Energy and Transport (European Commission) 

Time Schedule: July 2005 - December 2007

Final Report

Homepage of FUNDING

Project Management

The FUNDING Project consists of 12 partners, which are mainly based in the EU. The project work is divided into 9 work packages. The project co-ordination is carried out by the Catholic University of Leuven.

The Consortium

Participant name

Country

Katholieke Universiteit Leuven

Belgium

Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds

UK

Institute for Regional Research (IfR), University of Kiel

Germany

Free University of Amsterdam

The Netherlands

Workgroup for Infrastructure Policy, Berlin University of Technology

Germany

Hebrew University of Jerusalem

Israel

Tampere University of Technology

Finland

Transport & Mobility Leuven

Belgium

adpC

Belgium

Institute for Transport Planning and Traffic Engineering, University of Vienna

Austria

Aristotle University of Thessaloniki

Greece

Büro für Raumforschung, Raumplanung und Geoinformation

Germany

 

General project objectives

The main objective of the FUNDING project is to develop a scientifically sound approach to determine optimal charging and investment in the EU member states and the Accession countries. This implies the following aims:

  • The use of state-of-the art research to assess revenues from pricing and to identify the financing gap per mode, per region and per period of time for the EU15 and the Accession countries.

  • To contribute to the development of a methodology for mark-ups to marginal cost pricing that is applicable to all modes as well as links and nodes. The analysis includes a more detailed analysis of network aspects, the division of power between several governments and operators, quality aspects as well as uncertainty issues.

  • To develop and test a methodology for a European multi-modal infrastructure fund, taking into account the equity and efficiency effects. The possible structures of such a fund, the decision criteria, acceptability, efficiency and spatial equity effects will be studied in the project. A spatial computable general equilibrium model will be used to compare a selection of pricing and revenue use strategies, including different infrastructure fund structures. It allows calculating the economic impacts of these measures as well as the distribution of these impacts for a large number of regions for the EU15 and the Accession countries.

  • To demonstrate the methodology for selected scenarios and geographical coverage. The analysis by the spatial computable general equilibrium will be complemented by more detailed network models for the different modes (road, rail and air). These include models with a European-wide and a more regional coverage.

 

Background:

The 1995 Green Paper on Fair and Efficient Pricing has led to substantial research on transport pricing, much of it financed by EC Framework programmes. The first set of projects (including particularly PETS, QUITS and TRENEN) focused mainly on developing pricing principles, on measuring the various marginal social cost components and on case studies to model the effects of different pricing rules.

Over time more emphasis was laid on implementation issues rather than basic principles. PROGRESS, CUPID and DESIRE concern themselves with the practical issues of implementing road pricing in urban and inter-urban areas, respectively. The UNITE project aimed to provide better information for the transport decision makers in order to help them in their pricing decisions. Two types of information were considered in the project: detailed case studies of marginal social costs for specific circumstances, and estimates of the overall social costs and revenues for national or regional transport systems as a whole. In addition, the project analysed ways of using these two sorts of information in an integrated way to derive appropriate policy conclusions regarding pricing systems that are both efficient and equitable.

Two other projects, AFFORD and MC-ICAM identified the need for policy packages, both to ensure acceptability and to make the most efficient use of revenue. MC-ICAM also adopted the idea of a phased approach, as set out in the 1998 White paper, and studied the reasons why such a phasing might be necessary, in the light of the constraints imposed by implementation barriers and the way in which these might change over time, and to come up with the most efficient and equitable feasible implementation paths.

The work of the past projects was summarised and presented to policy makers through a thematic network named IMPRINT-EUROPE.

Over time it has also clearly emerged that the impact of pricing policies will heavily depend on the use that is made of the revenues generated by transport pricing schemes. This specific issue is addressed in the ongoing REVENUE project which analyses the basic theoretical questions and which will test the theoretical prescriptions on revenue use in a number of case studies. The case studies cover individual projects rather than the whole of the EU.

This proposal aims to examine these revenue use issues further. For this it will build upon the ongoing research of the REVENUE consortium. However, in order to achieve the objectives of the call on optimal investment and charging, the analysis of the REVENUE consortium needs to be extended. For each of the issues put forward in the scope of the call, the following paragraphs identify the complementary analyses that are required and that are integrated in the current proposal.

 

  • Identification of the financing gap per mode, per region and per period of time for the EU15 and the Accession countries: This financing gap is not studied in a systematic way in REVENUE as only isolated case studies are used. We propose a first aggregated analysis of the revenue streams and financing gaps for the EU25.

  • Development of a methodology for mark-ups to marginal cost pricing: This methodology will be developed to a large extent in REVENUE. However, there are a few important elements missing that will be elaborated in this proposal. First of all, we take into account the network externalities that arise when one region or country uses price and investment strategies without taking into consideration the effects on revenues and costs in neighbouring regions and countries. Secondly, we consider the division of power over several governments or operators. Thirdly, we pay attention to the quality of the infrastructure provision and to uncertainty issues.

  • To develop and test the methodology for a European multi-modal infrastructure fund and assess the equity and efficiency effects: This task is not covered on a European scale in REVENUE. The possible structures of such a fund, the decision criteria, acceptability, efficiency and spatial equity effects will be studied in this project. A spatial computable general equilibrium model will be used to compare a selection of pricing and revenue use strategies, including different infrastructure fund structures. It allows calculating the economic impacts of these measures as well as the distribution of these impacts for a large number of regions in the EU25.

  • To demonstrate the methodology for selected scenarios and geographical coverage. The analysis by the spatial computable general equilibrium will be complemented by means of more detailed network models for the different modes. These include models with a European-wide and a more regional coverage.

 

Contribution of the Institute for Regional Research (IfR), University of Kiel (CAU)

Project leader: Prof. Dr. Johannes Bröcker

Project staff: Nils Schneekloth, Artem Korzhenevych (project research)

The Institute for Regional Research as partner of the FUNDING consortium is work package leader for the work package 4: “Testing the European-wide equity and efficiency effetcs of alternative pricing and revenue use strategies”. The CGEurope model, a spatial general equilibrium model for Europe, which was applied in IASON and ESPON 2.1.1, will be used to calculate the economic impacts of alternative pricing regimes and alternative ways of using the revenues generated by these pricing regimes. As regards the revenue use, the reearchers will analyse case in which the revenue is allocated to the transport sector to finance a European infrastructure fund, and the case in which it is used outside of the transport sector, e.g. for a reduction in general taxation. For the first option, several possible structures of the infrastructure fund will be compared. These involve, inter alia, different scopes of the infrastructure fund, whether the revenues should be used for the regions and modes in which they are generated.  The welfare effects of the different policy options will be calculated with the CGEurope model for over 1300 regions within the European Union on NUTS-3 level and on a comparable level for the accession countries as well as a number of external regions.

 

"TRANS-TOOLS": Tools for Transport Forecasting and Scenario Testing

Instrumente zur Verkehrsprognose und Szenarioanalyse


Applicant: DG TREN, Directorate General for Energy and Transport (European Commission), 
6th Framework Programme

Time Schedule: October 2004 - March 2008

Final Report

Project Management

The TRANS-TOOLS Project involves 8 partners, who will need to co-operate closely together. The project co-ordination is carried out by TNO Inro.

 

The Consortium

 

Participation Role 

Name of Project Partner

Co-ordinator

TNO Inro Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research

Contractor

NEA Transport Research and Training

Contractor

TRT Trasporti e Territorio SRL

Contractor

Universitaet Karlsruhe (TH)

Contractor

Institute for Regional Research (IfR), University of Kiel

Contractor

Joint Research Centre

Contractor

Danmarks Teknische Universitet

Contractor

Istituto di Studi per l’Integrazione dei Sistemi

 

General project objectives

TRANS-TOOLS aims to produce a European transport network model covering both passengers and freight, as well as intermodal transport, which overcomes the shortcomings of current European transport network models.

Main shortcomings include the unsatisfactory representation of mix of traffic (short/long distance and freight/passenger), the (partly) missing presence of intermodality and freight logistics in models, differences in implementation of Origin-Destination base year for freight traffic in some models, outdated character of some models, no sufficient linkage of network based transport models with socio-economic effects and external effects.

As on the European realm different models for different options and with different IPR settings are anticipated, it is useful to construct an IPR free instrument on the basis of the best available knowledge (i.e. notably at partners that have been involved in building models that involve European policy questions).

The aim is to develop a European network-based transport model starting from the ideas consolidated in the modelling experience of the consortium partners. This means that some of the features of the current available EU models will be added, considering that while the model cannot be a tool for every purpose, the selection of the model features should be essentially on the basis of the policy needs addressed by the European Commission services. It is already quite clear that the SCENES model approach will provide good suggestions for the treatment of passenger transport and the interaction of local and long distance traffic, that the VACLAV transport network will be a suitable basis for the development of an efficient transport assignment model, that NEAC will provide the information for proper description of freight transport and that the SCENES model will constitute a reference for the treatment of intermodal transport, as well as SLAM for logistics.

This will lead in the following clear innovations obtained form TRANS-TOOLS:

  • New set up of a demand/supply model;
  • Intermodality for passenger/freight (as National and European transport policies seek to promote intermodality through different measures);
  • Inclusion of intercontinental flows (mainly for freight), as some models do not cover this segment;
  • Full coverage of Central and Eastern Europe (Accession Countries and the countries at the borders of the enlarged European Union);
  • Integration of the new Member States at a level similar to those of EU 15;
  • Feedback infrastructure development economy (as the question of indirect effects in the economy and on network level is important, especially where investment has a substantial influence - notably for Accession Countries);
  • Logistics/freight chain explicitly included;
  • Coupling method with local traffic in order to address the effect of congestion on long-distance traffic;
  • The consortium provides access to all relevant experience concerning EU and national modelling;
  • A software approach is chosen which results in a software modelling tool on network level.

 

 

Contribution of the Institute for Regional Research (IfR), University of Kiel (CAU)

Project leader:

 Prof. Dr. Johannes Bröcker

Project staff:

 Nils Schneekloth, Artem Korzhenevych (project research)


The Institute for Regional Research as a part of the TRANS-TOOLS consortium aims at building upon the previous CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) modelling experiences in IASON with the CGEurope model, a spatial general equilibrium model for Europe. The focus of the research is on evaluating welfare effects in a comparative static framework fulfilling all equilibrium conditions. 

The model will be used to assess the economic welfare effects and effects on the sectoral structure in future policy scenarios. The model results will be used by the partners who apply the NEAC model, to introduce a feedback between the effects in the transport sector and the effects on economic growth and distribution of sectoral economic activities.   

 

Pendlerverflechtung zwischen den Kreisen und Gemeinden Schleswig-Holsteins

2000/2001: Gutachten im Auftrag der Abt. Landesplanung des Ministeriums für Ländliche Räume, Landesplanung, Landwirtschaft und Tourismus des Landes Schleswig-Holstein.

2007: Auswertungen und Kartierung im Auftrag der Abteilung Landesplanung des Innenministeriums des Landes Schleswig - Holstein sowie laufende Forschung ohne externe Finanzierung.

Projektleitung:
Prof. Dr. Johannes Bröcker

Bearbeitung:
Dr. Hayo Herrmann, Sebastian Döll (2007)

 

Empirische Befunde zur Berufspendlerverflechtung zwischen Raumeinheiten leisten einen wesentlichen Beitrag zur Abgrenzung funktionaler Regionen im Sinne zusammenhängender Wirtschafts- und Lebensräume, zur Einschätzung täglicher Verkehrsströme und zur Beschreibung regionaler Arbeitsmärkte. So ist die Entscheidung der Arbeitskräfte, eine räumliche Distanz zwischen Arbeitsstätte und Wohnung zu akzeptieren und damit den Status eines Berufspendlers anzunehmen, Resultat wie auch Voraussetzung räumlicher Trennung von Produktionsstätten und Wohngebieten. Die Pendlermobilität stellt damit gleichzeitig ein Stück Arbeitsmarktflexibilität dar und liefert neben der qualifikatorischen Flexibilität einen wesentlichen Beitrag zum Ausgleich regionaler Arbeitsmarktbilanzen. 

Vor diesem Hintergrund stellt die Analyse der räumlichen Struktur und der Entwicklung der Berufspendlerströme einen Teil der laufenden empirischen Forschung am Institut für Regionalforschung dar. Nachdem zuletzt mit der Volkszählung 1987 regional gegliederte Pendlerzahlen ausgewiesen wurden, ermöglicht seit 1993 ein Auswertungsprogramm zur Beschäftigtenstatistik, dass die Sozialversicherungspflichtig Beschäftigten regional sowohl nach ihrem Wohn- als auch nach ihrem Arbeitsort zugeordnet werden können. Damit lassen sich indirekt auch regionale Pendlerströme einschätzen. Die Daten für die Kreise Schleswig-Holsteins (einschließlich Hamburg) wurden uns von der Bundesanstalt/Bundesagentur für Arbeit für alle Jahre ab 1993 zur Verfügung gestellt. Gemeindedaten für 1993, 1996, 1999 und die folgenden Jahre liegen ebenfalls vor. Ausgewählte Ergebnisse sind in der Publikation zum o.g. Gutachten (2000/2001) und in den Arbeitsmarktberichten des Instituts dokumentiert (siehe Beschäftigungs- und Arbeitsmarktentwicklung in Schleswig-Holstein).

Die Pendlerströme haben sich in den letzten Jahren insbesondere verstärkt

  • zwischen den Kreisen des Hamburger Randgebietes
  • aus Hamburg ins Hamburger Randgebiet
  • aus den kreisfreien Städten des Landes in ihre Nachbarkreise.

Dagegen haben sich die zentripetalen, traditionellen Pendlerströme, also diejenigen aus den Nachbarkreisen in die kreisfreien Städte oder vom Hamburger Randgebiet nach Hamburg, unterschiedlich entwickelt. Der Teilausgleich räumlicher Arbeitsmarktungleichgewichte durch Arbeitskräftemobilität hat sich weiter verstärkt, er entfernt sich aber langsam von der klassischen monozentrischen Form (Wohnen im Umland der Städte, Arbeiten in den städtischen Zentren) und liefert ein zunehmend disperses Verflechtungsbild. Andererseits bleibt aber der Umfang der Pendlerströme über größere Distanzen, also in andere als die Nachbarkreise, weiterhin deutlich hinter den Nahpendlerströmen zurück. Auf der Ebene der Planungsräume des Landes gilt also nach wie vor, dass das in der Region wohnende Arbeitskräfteangebot ganz überwiegend durch Arbeitsplatzangebote der eigenen Region zu versorgen ist. Dabei ist Hamburg mit seinem Umland allerdings als eine Region zu sehen.

Veröffentlichung zum Gutachten 2000/2001
Hayo Herrmann, Berufspendlerverflechtung in Schleswig-Holstein. J. Bröcker (Hrsg.), Beiträge aus dem Institut für Regionalforschung der Universität Kiel, Nr. 35, Kiel, 2001.

Hayo Herrmann, Berufspendlerverflechtung in Schleswig-Holstein. Kurzfassung des Beitrags Nr. 35 aus dem Institut für Regionalforschung der Universität Kiel, Kiel 2001.

Weitere Veröffentlichungen:

Empirische Arbeiten zur Pendlerverflechtung 2004/2005:

 

Auswertungen der Pendlerdaten für den Zeitraum 1993 bis 2003 auf Ebene der Kreise und Gemeinden des Landes Schleswig-Holstein (einschl. Hamburg) wurden Ende 2005 in einem Beitrag aus dem Institut für Regionalforschung publiziert: Hayo Herrmann und Ann-Christine Schulz, Räumliches Muster der Berufspendlerverflechtung im Raum Schleswig-Holstein/Hamburg. J. Bröcker (Hrsg.), Beiträge aus dem Institut für Regionalforschung der Universität Kiel, Nr. 40, Kiel 2005.

 

Pendlerverflechtung 2005 - Darstellung in Karten:

Die Auswertung zentripetaler Pendlerströme im Jahr 2005 (im Auftrag der Abteilung Landesplanung des Innenministeriums des Landes Schleswig-Holstein) führte zu einer Kartensammlung: a) Einzelkarten für 23 ausgewählte Städten in Schleswig - Holstein sowie für Hamburg ( Auspendlerintensitäten der Umlandgemeinden), b) Karten für Hamburg und die kreisfreien Städte, die die Veränderung der Auspendlerintensitäten (1999-2005) darstellen. und c) Karten, die Pendlerräume und insbesondere die Pendlerüberschneidungsbereiche für acht ausgewählte Regionen darstellen. 

Die Kartensammlung kann hier 

als PDF-Datei bezogen werden.

 

"ASSESS " - Assessment of the contribution of the TEN and other transport policy measures to the midterm implementation of the White Paper on the European Transport Policy for 2010

Bewertung des Beitrags verkehrspolitischer Maßnahmen (einschließlich der TEN-T-Politik) im Rahmen der Umsetzung der Europäischen Verkehrspolitik für das Jahr 2010.

Applicant:  DG TREN, Directorate General for Energy and Transport (European Commission)

Time Schedule: January 2005 – December 2005

European Commission Mobility & Transport

Final Report 

 

Project Consortium

Consortium leader      

TML, Transport & Mobility Leuven, Belgium

Contributor

TNO, The Netherlands

Contributor

WSP Policy and Research, United Kingdom

Contributor

TRT, Italy

Contributor

Institute for Regional Research, University of Kiel, Germany

Contributor

UG, Poland

Contributor

ITS Leeds, United Kingdom

Contributor

SWOV, The Netherlands

Contributor

DLR Germany

Contributor

IUAS Bad Honnef, Germany

Contributor

ITU, Turkey

 

General Project Objectives

On 12 September 2001, the European Commission published the White Paper “European transport policy for 2010: time to decide”. The White Paper analysed the existing situation with regard to transport and set out an ambitious action programme up to 2010.

The 2001 White Paper planned a mid-term assessment of its own achievements, which was to be launched in 2005. The mid-term assessment is to check whether the targets and objectives are being attained or whether adjustments are needed.

The ASSESS Project has been set up to provide the technical support to the Commission services for this mid-term assessment. The scope of the ASSESS study are the measures and objectives that were stated in the White Paper. In particular, the ASSESS project has assembled all main sources of quantitative  information at the European level to carry out an assessment of both the achievements to date, the possible policy implementation scenarios to the year 2010, and the longer term prospects to the year 2020.

The analysis accounts for the economic, social and environmental consequences of the proposed measures. It provides also a detailed analysis of those effects of EU enlargement likely to affect the structure and performance of the EU transport system.

Chapter II of the final report gives an overview of the implementation of these policies and measures in the EC and the Member States. This chapter also gives an idea to what extend will the White Paper contribute to improving the transport situation in 2010.

Chapter III is the conclusion of the indicator assessment of the White Paper objectives. In this chapter, the White Paper objectives are analyses for four White Paper scenarios in an increasing degree of ambition.

Chapter IV gives the conclusion on the challenges from a changing world, as the EU enlargement, globalization and security, financial issues and the political dimension.

The last chapter V gives the recommendations, based on the assessment of the White Paper measures, the indicator assessment and the challenges in a changing world.

There are three policies that have high degrees of advancement with the implementation of the White Paper policies at the EU level: The development of the Trans-European Transport Networks (TEN-T), policies on developing high quality urban transport and clean and efficient transport.

 

Advancement of implementation activities

  • Improving quality in the road transport sector 
  • Revitalizing the railways
  • Contolling growth in air transport
  • Promoting transport by sea and inland waterway
  • Turning intermodality into reality
  • Building the Trans-European transport network
  • Improving road safety
  • Effective charging for transport
  • Recognizing the rights and obligations of users
  • Developing high-quality urban transport
  • Putting research and technology at the service of clean, efficient transport
  • Managing the effects of globalizations
 
 
 

The EU enlargement

The process of EU enlargement from 15 to 25 countries fostered the development of new transport strategies in the 10 new Member States, including new national transport policies. Implementation plans are heavily focused on the extension of long distance Trans-European Networks to Central and Eastern Europe, with a focus on motorways. The EU enlargement of 2004 makes it more difficult to separate economic growth from transport demand growth.

 

Growth in Transport Demand

The possible trajectories of transport demand growth have been tested using the SCENES European Transport Model, using up to date economic and demographic projections and reasonable assumptions regarding foreign trade growth, fuel prices, passenger and freight user prices, and the trends in freight logistics. Four main policy scenarios have been developed within the ASSESS project, corresponding to different levels of expectations in policy implementation. For the most likely scenario, two alternative tests have been made in order to examine the possible variations in demand growth as a result of the model assumptions on pricing and freight logistic trends. Compared with earlier transport demand forecasts, the ASSESS Project has made use of more recent GDP projections, and has benefited from a longer time series of freight demand observations up to 2003/04.

 

The White Paper objectives: Progress has been made

The different future scenarios considered have an increasing degree of impact, with more ambitious policy implementation producing better outcomes. The accessibility of the regions will increase, the full White Paper implementation leads to a better accessibility of regions than the current implementation level. Implementing the measures of the White Paper is positively affecting the EU economic growth, particularly when marginal effects can be detected, although the impacts on GDP and employment are quite small.

 

Contribution of the Institute for Regional Research (IfR), University of Kiel (CAU)

Project leader: Prof. Dr. Johannes Bröcker

Project staff: Nils Schneekloth, Artem Korzhenevych

Contribution:  CGEurope modelling of the White Paper measures

For the years 2010 and 2020 the effect of implementation of three scenarios (the partial implementation of the White Paper, the full implementation, and the extended scenario) is calculated. The results are interpreted as real income changes in comparison to or ‘do nothing’ reference scenario. The model is dependent on the interregional transport cost data by the SCENES European Transport Model. The input information, that is derived from SCENES costs and flows data, is total transport costs aggregated across commodities by NUTS-2 region pair.

 

"ESPON 2.1.1" - Territorial Impacts of EU Transport and TEN Policies

European Spatial Planning Observation Network

 
Räumliche Auswirkungen der EU-Verkehrs- und TEN-Politiken

ESPON 2.1.1 is part of Priority 2 "Policy Impact Projects" and of Measure 2.1 "The Territorial Effects of Sector Policies".

Time Schedule: August 2002 - August 2004
Applicant: European Community INTERREG III Community Initiative - Art. 53
 
Homepage of ESPON
Final Report 

 

Project Management

The ESPON 2.1.1 Project involved 7 partners and the project co-ordination has been carried out by the Institute for Regional Research, Kiel University (Project Leader: Prof. Dr. Johannes Bröcker).

The Consortium

In building up the trans-national partnership, the partners were selected with respect to their accumulated experience in national and European policy studies on the assessment and forecasting of territorial impacts of transport policies and the development of territorial cohesion and accessibility indicators. The partnership exists of seven spatial research institutes of five countries: Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom.

Objectives of the ESPON 2006 Programme

Up to now and in contrast to the field of regional (economic) and cohesion policy, where some research capacity of European scope is already established, knowledge and research in the field of spatial development is still nationally oriented in the majority of cases. This shortcoming is based on a lack of resources for research covering the whole EU territory and, even more important, for taking a comprehensive view from an EU-wide perspective. However, the spatial development of a region not only depends on national policies but also is affected by the integration of the EU as well as by the EU policies, in particular the regional and cohesion policy, leading to differing economic and social conditions across areas of the European territory. Spatial development addresses the balance of all areas and regions of a territory considering all spatially relevant factors stretching from economic to cultural, from natural to social. That approach was elaborated by the preparation of the 'European Spatial Development Perspective' (ESDP) of the European Union.

The ESPON 2006 Programme follows the objective of contributing to the improvement of EU policies in terms of their spatial effects as it was formulated in the ESDP. Hence, ESPON will specify the implications of the ESDP policy orientations on transnational-national spaces and will develop orientations for instruments and institutions, necessary for a better perception and application of the ESDP policy options by policy actors at all levels from the EU to the local level. ESPON will contribute to a better understanding of the enhancement of the spatial dimension of the Structural Funds, Cohesion policy and other Community and national sector policies and to the improvement of the co-ordination of territorially relevant decisions, taken at different levels and in different sector policies. In addition ESPON will add value to existing national research by taking a clear European and trans-national focus and improving the understanding of the diversity of the European territory and territorial development. ESPON will bridge the gap between policy makers, administrators and scientist and will create a network of the scientific European community in the fragmented field of spatial development.

Hence, all projects launched under the ESPON 2006 Programme shall follow an integrated approach and cover a wide range of issues such as: (i) identifying the decisive factors relevant for a more polycentric European territory; (ii) developing territorial indicators and typologies capable of identifying and measuring development trends; (iii) developing tools supporting diagnoses of principal structural difficulties as well as potentialities; (iv) Investigating territorial impacts of sectoral and structural polices and (v) developing integrated tools in support of a balanced and polycentric spatial development.

ESPON 2.1.1: 'Territorial Impacts of EU Transport and TEN Policies'

Action 2.1.1 is part of Priority 2, 'Policy Impact Projects', of the ESPON 2006 Programme and concentrates on the evaluation of territorial effects of the trans-European transport, energy and telecommunication networks (TEN). The major question under this action is how far the TENs provide the right answers for a territorial development as described in the ESDP. The ESDP stresses the need for an integrated approach for improved transport links, makes reference to the polycentric development model, highlights the efficient and sustainable use of infrastructure and refers to the importance of the diffusion of innovation and knowledge. This integrated approach should be followed in analysing transport and telecommunication networks. Any analysis should take into account the principle of territorial balance, the particular problems of peripheral regions and the improvement of secondary networks. The objectives of ESPON 2.1.1 are (i) to develop methods for the assessment of territorial impacts of EU transport and TEN policies; (ii) to develop territorial indicators, typologies and concepts, establish database and map-making facilities and conduct empirical statistical data analyses; (iii) to analyse territorial trends, potentials and problems deriving from EU transport and TEN policies at different scales and in different parts of an enlarged European territory; (iv) to show the influence of transport, telecommunications and energy policies on spatial development at relevant scales; (v) to show the interplay between EU and sub-EU spatial policies and best examples for implementation; (vi) to recommend further policy developments in support of territorial cohesion and a polycentric and better balanced EU territory and (vii) to find appropriate instruments to improve the spatial co-ordination of EU and national sector policies and the ESDP.

 

"IASON" - Integrated Appraisal of Spatial Economic and Network Effects of Transport Investments and Policies

Bewertung raumwirtschaftlicher Effekte von Verkehrsinvestitionen und Verkehrspolitiken

 


Thematic Programme "Promoting Competitive and Sustainable Growth"
Key Action 2 "Sustainable Mobility and Intermodality"
Objective 2.1:"Socio-Economic Scenarios for Mobility of People and Goods"

Time Schedule: April 2001 - December 2003 

Applicant: DG Tren - Directorate General for Energy and Transport (European Commission)

Homepage of IASON

Final Report 

Project Management

The IASON Project involves 7 partners, 5 associated partners and 3 subcontractors who will need to co-operate closely together. The project co-ordination is carried out by TNO.


The Consortium

The consortium is built up around key participants of these studies in the UK, Germany, France, The Netherlands, Hungary and Finland. Additional panel members with a broad theoretical and practical knowledge will participate from Italy, France, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, Poland and Japan.

 

General Information

Today, several processes are going on in Europe that have far-reaching implications on the spatial organisation of human society in Europe in general and on spatial interaction, that is on interregional flows of commodities and people, on financial flows and on the exchange of knowledge and information in particular. Hence, the way how these interactions develop, how they are influenced by regional, national and international political and administrative structures, and whether infrastructure capacities meet the growing demands for spatial interaction is of vital importance for the spatial dynamics of the European economy. Infrastructure projects' assessment is one essential element of the continuous improvement of public policy's efficiency, because by giving insight in to the positive and negative effects of alternative policies and investments, it can assist in evaluating and prioritising alternatives, before they are implemented.

In recent years there have already been considerable efforts by national governments to develop infrastructure projects' assessment methods that aim at a comprehensive and justifiable estimation of transport policy impacts. Guidelines and the supporting tools for appraisal exist in some member states at a national level. The main progress of these studies in the economic appraisal of transport project impacts concern the dimension of interregional exchanges and its influence on transport demand. However, for impact assessments related to EU transport policy, these methods are too narrow and too diverse; in other words: a common, unified framework is lacking. This problem is worsened by gaps in the methodological and empirical knowledge of the relationship between transport policy and emergence of spatial structures and the lack of understanding of specific theoretical issues related to the valuation of transport policy impacts which become particularly relevant at the EU level.

The project was finished with the presentation of the final results at a workshop at DG TREN on the 20th of February 2004.

 

Contribution of the Institute for Regional Research (IfR), Kiel University (CAU)

 
Project leader:

Prof. Dr. Johannes Bröcker

Project staff:

Nils Schneekloth, Roland Meyer (project research)

The Institute for Regional Research as a part of the IASON consortium aims at building upon previous CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) modelling experiences through a combination of previously built national models into a common spatial general equilibrium model for Europe (CGEurope). The focus of the CGEurope model is on evaluating welfare effects in a comparative static framework fulfilling all equilibrium conditions. Transport policies will be appraised by comparing cases "with" and "without", leaving everything else unchanged. Rather than predicting long-term locational change, CGEurope studies welfare gains and losses in the sense of CBA (cost-benefit-analysis), given the spatial distribution of factors of production. The transport system enters the model due to the fact, that interregional trade in the model is costly, with cost depending on the transport network as well as on international trade impediments, as far as cross-border trade is concerned. Transport policies are modelled thus by varying these transport costs. As a response, prices as well as quantities of goods and services react on the cost changes. The model incorporates economies of scale and product diversity, following recent advances in the theory of economic geography. Transport cost changes result in output, income and welfare changes measured by monetary equivalents of household utility changes. This means that the impact of transport policies is assessed by a measure which is perfectly in line with the theoretical concepts in CBA. The advantage over standard project assessments is, however, that it will be possible to quantify the distribution of welfare gains and losses, and that general equilibrium repercussions are consistently taken into consideration, including effects generated by economies of scale and agglomeration. This avoids the danger of omitting indirect effects as well as of double-counting.

 

Publications:

Johannes Bröcker, Frank Richter
Economic Integration and Transport Infrastructure in the Baltic Sea Area. In J. Bröcker and H. Herrmann, editors, Spatial Change and Interregional Flows in the Integrating Europe, pages 49-59, Physica, Heidelberg, 2001. 

Johannes Bröcker
Spatial effects of Transeuropean Networks: Preliminary Results from a Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Analysis, Diskussionsbeiträge aus dem Institut für Wirtschaft und Verkehr der Technischen Universität Dresden, Nr.4/98, Dresden, 1998
 

 

 

Economy-Wide Benefits: Dynamic and Strategic Effects of a Fehmarn Belt Fixed Link

Applicant: 
Ministry of Transport, Denmark
Federal  Ministry of Transport, Building and Housing, Germany (Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bau und Stadtentwicklung)

Cooperative project. Consortium Leaders: Copenhagen Economics ApS (Denmark) and Prognos AG, Germany. Subcontractors: Institute for Regional Research, Kiel University; Transport Studies Unit, University of Osxford; University of Sussex (UK).

Project Leader in Kiel: Prof. Dr. Johannes Bröcker

Time Schedule (work at Institute for Regional Research, Kiel): May to July 2004. 

General Project Objectives: The main purpose is to analyse: The excpected impact  on employment, competition, location choice of business and economic growth of a Fehmarn Belt fixed link.
By dynamic and strategic effects we understand the economic effects in terms of increased productivity and more competitive markets that are not included in traditional cost-benefit  analysis of a transport infrastructure investment. Total economic benefits from an infrastructure investment is the sum of the benefits accounted for in a cost-benefits analysis and the benefits occuring from the dynamic and strategic effects. 

Project Report: Copenhagen Economics (Ed.), Economy-Wide Benefits - Dynamic and Strategic Effects of a Fehmarn Belt Fixed Link, Copenhagen, June 2004. Download via Homepage of Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Housing, Berlin or here.

How does Economic Development in Eastern Europe affect Austria's Regions?

A Multiregional General Equilibrium Framework (jointly with Martin Schneider, Vienna)

Download the computer implementation:
SCGE-Spatial Computable General Equilibrium for an Open Economy:

 

Auswertung des IAB Betriebspanels für Schleswig-Holstein

Gutachten im Auftrag des Ministeriums für Arbeit, Soziales, Gesundheit und Verbraucherschutz des Landes Schleswig-Holstein bzw. in der Folge des Ministeriums für Wirtschaft, Arbeit und Verkehr (Auswertung der Befragungen 2002 und 2003) 

Die Auswertungen der Befragungen 2002 und 2003 fanden in den Monaten März bis September der Jahre 2003 und 2004 statt, die Befunde wurden zum Jahresende 2003 bzw. 2004 im Rahmen von Beiträgen aus dem Institut für Regionalforschung dokumentiert, der Bericht zur Befragung 2002 wurde außerdem als Drucksache dem Schleswig-Holsteinischen Landtag vorgelegt.

Projektleitung: Prof. Dr. Johannes Bröcker

Bearbeitung:
Dipl.-Volksw. Emanuel Gedeon, Dr. Hayo Herrmann sowie weitere Mitarbeiterinnen und Mitarbeiter am Institut für Regionalforschung

Das IAB Betriebspanel (IAB = Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- Berufsforschung an der Bundesagentur für Arbeit) ist ein betriebsgestütztes Beobachtungssystem zur laufenden Analyse betrieblicher Bestimmungsgründe der Beschäftigung. Mit den jährlichen Arbeitgeberbefragungen in nahezu allen west- und ostdeutschen Bundesländern ist ein Instrumentarium geschaffen worden, mit dem für die einzelnen Bundesländer aktuelle empirische Befunde mit repräsentativem Aussagewert gewonnen werden konnten und die in einigen Bundesländern auch bereits Zeitreihen- und Panelanalysen erlauben. Die Daten liefern Erkenntnisse über betriebliche Bestimmungsgründe der Beschäftigung, über betriebliche Strukturen und Strategien, die Art und Umfang der Beschäftigung bestimmen, und bei hinlänglich langer Zeitreihe auch mittel- und längerfristige Tendenzen der Arbeitswelt.

Weitere Vorteile des IAB Betriebspanels ergeben sich aus der Kontinuität und Stabilität, wodurch Trendanalysen erst möglich werden, aus der Vergleichbarkeit der Befunde mit denen anderer Bundesländer bzw. mit den west- und ostdeutschen Befunden und aus den Möglichkeiten der Verknüpfung mit anderen Daten aus der Statistik der BA.

Bis 2001 war Schleswig-Holstein als eines der letzten Bundesländer noch nicht an den jährlichen Erhebungen beteiligt. Mit einer Aufstockung der Stichprobe im Rahmen der Arbeitgeberbefragung von etwa 150 auf ca. 800 Betriebe konnten in Schleswig-Holstein ab 2002 Erhebungen realisiert werden, die eine landesspezifische Auswertung erlauben.

Die Datenerhebung wird von der TNS Infratest Sozialforschung GmbH im Rahmen der vom IAB organisierten Gesamtbefragung durchgeführt. Das Institut für Regionalforschung stimmt sich dabei mit dem IAB und mit TNS Infratest Sozialforschung ab. TNS Infratest nimmt die Befragung, die Hochrechnung der Befunde und eine Erstauswertung vor. Die Aufstockung der Befragung für Schleswig-Holstein wurde für die Jahre 2002 und 2003 vom Ministerium für Arbeit, Soziales, Gesundheit und Verbraucherschutz des Landes Schleswig-Holstein bzw. in der Folge des Ministeriums für Wirtschaft, Arbeit und Verkehr finanziert.

Die tabellarische Grundauswertung umfasst eine landesspezifische Auszählung sämtlicher Fragen des Fragebogens für vier Betriebsgrößenklassen bzw. sechs Wirtschaftsbereiche sowie für wachsende, schrumpfende und stagnierende Betriebe und für Betriebe mit einem hohen oder niedrigen Anteil hoch qualifizierter Beschäftigter. Die Befunde für das Land werden in der Regel mit denen für das Bundesgebiet West verglichen. Die Auswertungen konzentrieren sich dabei auf die folgenden Bereiche:

  1. Basisdaten zu den Betrieben und den Beschäftigten

  2. Beschäftigungsstruktur und Beschäftigungsentwicklung: Personalstruktur, Personalpolitik, ältere Arbeitnehmer, betriebliche Erstausbildung, Weiterbildung, Entlohnung, Arbeitszeitflexibilität, besondere Formen der Erwerbstätigkeit

  3. Wirtschaftliche Lage und Entwicklung der Betriebe: Ertragslage, Absatzorientierung, Investition, technischer Stand, Forschung und Entwicklung, Produktivität, öffentliche Förderung

 

Publikationen:

Die Auswertung des Betriebspanels 2002 wurde als "Arbeitsmarktbericht Schleswig-Holstein" im Rahmen einer Landesdrucksache veröffentlicht (Jahresbeginn 2004). Danach wurde der Bericht außerdem als Beitrag des Instituts für Regionalforschung vorgelegt.

    Arbeitsmarktbericht Schleswig-Holstein 2002, Drucksache 15/3254 des Schleswig-Holsteinischen Landtags (24. Februar 2004), Kiel 2004.

Als Beitrag aus dem Institut für Regionalforschung:

    Christian Fischer, Emanuel Gedeon, Hayo Herrmann und Barbara Stoschek, Arbeitsmarktbericht für Schleswig-Holstein 2002. J. Bröcker (Hrsg.), Beiträge aus dem Institut für Regionalforschung der Universität Kiel, Nr. 37, Kiel 2004.

Die Auswertung des Betriebspanels 2003 ist im Beitrag Nr. 39 publiziert:

    Emanuel Gedeon, Hayo Herrmann, Roland Meyer, Nils Schneekloth, Ann-Christine Schulz, IAB-Betriebspanel Report 2003, Arbeitgeberbefragung Schleswig-Holstein, J. Bröcker (Hrsg.), Beiträge aus dem Institut für Regionalforschung der Universität Kiel, Nr. 39, Kiel 2004.

 

Beschäftigungs- und Arbeitsmarktentwicklung in Schleswig-Holstein

Projektleitung:
Prof. Dr. Johannes Bröcker

Bearbeitung:
Dr. Hayo Herrmann

Ein Statistischer Arbeitsmarktbericht für Schleswig-Holstein wurde bis 2003 jährlich als Beitrag aus dem Institut für Regionalforschung publiziert. Er befasste sich vor allem mit der Beschäftigungsentwicklung in Schleswig-Holstein und in seinen Regionen im Vergleich mit dem Bundesgebiet (West), ergänzt um ausgewählte Befunde zur Arbeitslosigkeit. Im Vordergrund standen die Befunde des jeweils abgelaufenen Jahres bzw. die Entwicklung in den letzten 5 bis 10 Jahren sowie eine Prognose von Beschäftigung und Arbeitsmarktbilanz für das laufende und darauf folgende Jahr.

Bis 2004 wurden die Arbeiten zum Statistischen Arbeitsmarktbericht vom Ministerium für Wirtschaft, Arbeit und Verkehr des Landes Schleswig-Holstein finanziell unterstützt, zum Teil wurden die Jahresberichte auch als Drucksachen dem Schleswig-Holsteinischen Landtag vorgelegt.

Im Rahmen des Statistischen Berichts basieren die Befunde auf amtlichen statistischen Daten, insbesondere aus der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnung der Länder, der Erwerbstätigenrechnung der Länder und der Beschäftigungsstatistik, sowie aus eigenen Berechnungen und Schätzungen einschließlich einer kurzfristigen Prognose des Instituts für Regionalforschung.

Der Statistische Bericht für das Jahr 2003 wurde dem Ministerium für Wirtschaft, Arbeit und Verkehr zur Jahresmitte 2004 vorgelegt, Datenstand war der Juni 2004. Ergänzt um ausgewählte Aktualisierungen (Datenstand Dezember 2004) wurde der Bericht als Beitrag aus dem Institut Ende 2004 publiziert.

Hayo Herrmann und Marie-Catherine Riekhof, Arbeitsmarktbericht für Schleswig-Holstein 2003. J. Bröcker (Hrsg.), Beiträge aus dem Institut für Regionalforschung der Universität Kiel, Nr. 38, Kiel 2004.

 

Europäische Grenzräume in Nordwestdeutschland

Bearbeitung:
Dr. Hayo Herrmann 

Arbeitsgruppe „Europäische Grenzräume in Nordwestdeutschland“ der Landesarbeitsgemeinschaft (LAG) Bremen, Hamburg, Niedersachsen, Schleswig-Holstein der ARL (Akademie für Raumforschung und Landesplanung), Hannover

Weiter Teilnehmer der Arbeitsgruppe: 
Ministerialrat a.D. Ludwig Thormählen, (bis 2001 Landesplanung Schleswig-Holstein) 
Dr. Konrad Lammers, Hamburgisches Welt-Wirtschafts-Archiv (HWWA) 
Prof. Dr. Ulrich Jung, Niedersächsisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (NIW), Hannover 
Dr. Rainer Danielzyk, Institut für Landes- und Stadtentwicklungsforschung des Landes NRW (ILS) 
Dr. Silvia Stiller, Hamburgisches Welt-Wirtschafts-Archiv (HWWA) 
Assistant Professor Dr. Huib Ernste, Department of Human Geography, University of Nijmegen 
Assistant Professor Michael Schack, Institut for graenseregionsforskning, Aabenraa, Dänemark 

Die Untersuchungsräume sind drei deutsch-dänische und drei deutsch-niederländische Grenzräume: 
Sønderjylland/Region Schleswig 
Fyns Amt/K.E.R.N.-Region 
Storstrøms Amt/Region Lübeck-Ostholstein 
Ems-Dollart-Region 
EUREGIO 
Euregio Rhein-Waal. 

Hauptfragestellungen: 
Wie haben sich die Grenzregionen im Vergleich zur jeweiligen größeren Gebietseinheit (Bundesland, Bundesgebiet bzw. Bundesgebiet West, Dänemark, Niederlande) entwickelt? 
Gibt es parallele Entwicklungen in den früher durch nationale Grenzen getrennten Teilen der jeweiligen Grenzräume? 
Wie vollzieht sich die Integration im Grenzraum? 
Was kann/sollte man tun, um die gemeinsamen Entwicklungschancen in den Grenzräumen besser zu nutzen?

Arbeitsschritte: 
Theoretische Überlegungen zur Entwicklung von Grenzräumen 
Empirische Analyse für die einzelnen ausgewählten Grenzräume 
Gemeinsamkeiten und Unterschiede zwischen den Grenzräumen 

Publikation:

Die Arbeitsergebnisse sind publiziert in:
L.Thormählen (Hrsg.), Entwicklung europäischer Grenzräume bei abnehmender Bedeutung nationaler Grenzen. Deutsch-dänische und deutsch-niederländische Grenzräume im europäischen Integrationsprozess. Schriftenreihe "Arbeitsmaterial" Nr. 308 der Akademie für Raumforschung und Landesplanung, Hannover, 2004.

 

Qualifikation und Arbeitsmarkt in Schleswig-Holstein/ Hamburg

Aktuelle und künftige Potentiale und Engpässe, Handlungsbedarf für Arbeitsmarkt- und Bildungspolitik

Die Studie wurde 2002/2003 vom Institut für Regionalforschung und vom Forschungs- und Entwicklungszentrum Fachhochschule Kiel GmbH im Auftrag der Technologiestiftung Schleswig-Holstein erarbeitet. 


Projektleitung:
Prof. Dr. Johannes Bröcker

Bearbeitung:
PD Dr. Elke M. Geenen (F&E-Zentrum FH Kiel GmbH), Dr. Hayo Herrmann, Dipl.-Geogr. Christian Fischer 

Das Gutachten befasste sich mit der Frage, ob im Wirtschaftsraum Schleswig-Holstein/Hamburg in den nächsten Jahren Engpässe insbesondere bei höher qualifizierten Arbeitskräften zu befürchten sind, die sich zu einem Hemmnis des Wirtschaftswachstums in diesem Raum entwickeln könnten. In der gegenwärtigen Situation besonders rascher technischer und organisatorischer Veränderungen werden die Wurzeln für langfristige regionale Erfolge oder Misserfolge gelegt. Dabei ist die Verfügbarkeit von Humankapital ein entscheidender Standortfaktor. Die erhöhte Nachfrage nach gut ausgebildeten Arbeitskräften stößt auf Probleme auf der Angebotsseite, die sich aus der Verknappung öffentlicher Mittel im Bildungsbereich, der Trägheit öffentlicher Institutionen sowie dem demographischen Wandel ergeben.

Bezogen auf die Angebotsseite konzentriert sich die Studie im wesentlichen auf die Erstqualifikation der jüngeren Generation und ihre Konfrontation mit dem aktuellen und zu erwartenden Qualifikationsbedarf der Betriebe und Institutionen. Der Untersuchungsraum ist Schleswig-Holstein und Hamburg, das Bundesgebiet West bildet den Vergleichsmaßstab. Neben einer Beschreibung der aktuellen Situation und der Entwicklung etwa ab Mitte der 90er Jahre werden Prognosen mit einem Zeithorizont bis 2030 analysiert.

Die Studie geht zunächst getrennt nach der Angebotsseite (Schulabgänger bzw. Hochschulabsolventen) und der Nachfrageseite (Qualifikationsbedarf) vor. Im Anschluss werden die beiden Seiten zusammengeführt. Den Abschluss der Arbeiten bildet die Ableitung von Handlungsbedarf aus den identifizierten zukünftigen Qualifikationsengpässen.

Eine Kurzfassung wichtiger Ergebnisse ist hier im PDF-Format abrufbar.

 

Publikationen:

Ausgewählte Befunde der Studie wurden am 21. Oktober 2003 im Rahmen eines Workshops präsentiert und in einem Kreis interessierter Wissenschaftler, sowie wirtschafts- und bildungspolitischer Akteure diskutiert. Die schriftliche Präsentation der Ergebnisse ist Anfang 2004 durch die Technologiestiftung Schleswig-Holstein erfolgt. 

J. Bröcker, E. Geenen, C. Fischer, H. Herrmann: Qualifikation und Arbeitsmarkt in Schleswig-Holstein und Hamburg - Aktuelle und künftige Potenziale und Engpässe, Handlungsbedarf für Arbeitsmarkt- und Bildungspolitik. Studien der Technologiestiftung Schleswig-Holstein, Kiel, März 2004.

 

Barriers and Potentials of Cross Border Cooperation in the Fehmarnbelt Region

Cooperative Project of the Institut for Graenseregionsforskning, Syddansk Universitet (leading partner) and the Institute for Regional Research, Kiel University Report on behalf of the Fehmarnbelt Forum and the Kreis Ostholstein, work carried out in 2006.

Overall Project Leader and Coordinator: Dr. Martin Klatt, Institut for Graenseregionsforskning

Project Leader in Kiel: Prof. Dr. Johannes Bröcker
Work in Kiel: Dr. Hayo Herrmann, Prof. Dr. Johannes Bröcker, Dipl.-Eco. Nils Schneekloth; with the cooperation of Dipl.-Eco. Ann-Christine Schulz (Oldenburg University) and Kerstin Krey (cand. rer. pol.).

Work at the Institut for Graenseregionsforskning: Dr. Martin Klatt, Ulrike Barten (Master of Law); with the cooperation of Henrik D. Jørgensen (cand. oecon.)

The report was proceeded in the context of the Interreg cooperation between Storstrøms Amt in Denmark and its neighbouring German region of Ostholstein-Lübeck. The objective was to identify potential impediments and opportunities of cross-border cooperation in the Fehmarnbelt Region, and to present strategies to overcome barriers and to develop cross border cooperation.

Alongside extensive discussions and interviews with experts in the Fehmarnbelt Region and in other Danish-German and Dutch-German cross border regions, case studies based on comparable border regions and econometric scenarios formed the methodical frame of the study. The objective of the interviews was to record information about barriers and potentials directly from the people involved in cross border work. The scenarios dealt with potential integration between the two parts of the Fehmarnbelt region (e.g. commuter flows and interregional trade). As well as this, potential effects of a reduction or even cutback of border impediments (integration strategy) and/or the installation of a fixed Fehmarnbelt link (infrastructure strategy) were both quantified.

The scenarios assessing commuter flow potentials indicate that the Fehmarnbelt region has a disadvantage because of the long distance between the German and the Danish part, even when lowering all border barriers. A quicker and particularly a cheaper crossing of the Fehmarnbelt can compensate this disadvantage, but only partially. 
The scenarios for labour market and trade integration consistently show that the impact of integration strategies (implementation of a common cross border labour market and reduction of trade barriers) may not be undervalued when compared with the effects of a fixed Fehmarnbelt link. Compared with the transport infrastructure effect, the integration effect was mostly the stronger in the scenarios.

One important result of the interviews with the protagonists of the border region was the awareness, that dedicated individuals and enduring networks play a key role. Potentials of a stronger cross border cooperation are visible in the labour market, the education system, in inter-community cooperation, cross border tourism, information exchange, cooperation at firm level and the reduction of language barriers.

A summary of the Fehmarnbelt study in German language can be downloaded here as pdf.

 

 

Publication of the final report (in German language):

(a) via the website ot the "Fehmarnbelt Querung": über "Fehmarnbelt Forum" zur "Barriereanalyse" (in German language)
(b) as a report of the Institute for Regional Research (in German language):
Ulrike Barten, Johannes Bröcker, Hayo Herrmann and Martin Klatt (with the cooperation of Henrik D. Jørgensen, Kerstin Krey, Nils Schneekloth and Ann-Christine Schulz), Barrieren und Potentiale der grenzüberschreitenden Zusammenarbeit in der Fehmarnbelt-Region. J. Bröcker (Editor), Beiträge aus dem Institut für Regionalforschung der Universität Kiel, Nr. 41, Kiel 2006.

 

Analyse der Übergänge in Beschäftigung in der Region Schleswig-Holstein Süd-West

IAB Projekt


Projektleitung:

Prof. Dr. Johannes Bröcker und Prof. Dr. Annekatrin Niebuhr

Mitarbeiter:

Dr. Hayo Herrmann, M.A. Veronika Harder, Dipl.-Volksw. Hendrik Lüth und Cornelius Peters

Projektstart: 2012

Projektende: 2014

 

Kurzbeschreibung:

Das Arbeitsmarktgeschehen ist durch die kontinuierliche Schaffung neuer Arbeitsplätze und eine fortwährende Auflösung von Beschäftigungsverhältnissen gekennzeichnet. Die Analyse des auf dem Arbeitsmarkt ablaufenden „Matchings“ von Arbeitskräften und offenen Stellen liefert wichtige Erkenntnisse über die Arbeitsnachfrage, das Arbeitsangebot und mögliche Mismatchprobleme am Arbeitsmarkt. Eine detaillierte Untersuchung von Übergängen in Beschäftigung kann daher wertvolle Informationen für die Vermittlung von Arbeitslosen oder arbeitsuchenden Personen zur Verfügung stellen. Eine entsprechende Analyse sollte auf funktional abgegrenzte regionale Arbeitsmärkte abzielen, um regionalen Besonderheiten Rechnung zu tragen.

Im Rahmen der Studie werden Übergänge aus Arbeitslosigkeit oder Arbeitssuche in eine sozialversicherungspflichtige Beschäftigung im Zeitraum 2005-2011 für die Region Schleswig-Holstein Süd-West (Kreise Dithmarschen und Steinburg) analysiert. Neben der räumlichen Mobilität im Zuge der Stellenbesetzungsprozesse betrachten wir die Beschäftigungsaufnahmen differenziert nach Merkmalen der Erwerbspersonen (Geschlecht, Alter, Qualifikation, Art des Leistungsbezugs vor Beschäftigungsaufnahme). Eine Differenzierung erfolgt auch hinsichtlich der Art des aufgenommenen Beschäftigungsverhältnisses (Wirtschaftszweig, Tätigkeit). Ein besonderer Schwerpunkt wird hierbei auf die Qualität der Beschäftigung in Bezug auf die Dauer und die Bedarfsdeckung gelegt.

Publikation zum Projekt:

Analyse der Übergänge in Beschäftigung - Befunde für die Teilregion Kreis Dithmarschen

Analyse der Übergänge in Beschäftigung - Befunde für die Teilregion Kreis Steinburg


Siehe die auch die Webseite des IAB.

Analyse der Übergänge in Beschäftigung in der Arbeitsmarktregion Lübeck

IAB Projekt

 

Projektleitung:

Prof. Dr. Johannes Bröcker und Prof. Dr. Annekatrin Niebuhr

Mitarbeiter:

Dr. Hayo Herrmann, M.A. Veronika Harder, Dipl.-Volksw. Hendrik Lüth und Cornelius Peters

Projektstart: 2012

Projektende:
2014

 

Kurzbeschreibung:

Das Arbeitsmarktgeschehen ist durch die kontinuierliche Schaffung neuer Arbeitsplätze und eine fortwährende Auflösung von Beschäftigungsverhältnissen gekennzeichnet. Die Analyse des auf dem Arbeitsmarkt ablaufenden „Matchings“ von Arbeitskräften und offenen Stellen liefert wichtige Erkenntnisse über die Arbeitsnachfrage, das Arbeitsangebot und mögliche Mismatchprobleme am Arbeitsmarkt. Eine detaillierte Untersuchung von Übergängen in Beschäftigung kann daher wertvolle Informationen für die Vermittlung von Arbeitslosen oder arbeitsuchenden Personen zur Verfügung stellen. Eine entsprechende Analyse sollte auf funktional abgegrenzte regionale Arbeitsmärkte abzielen, um regionalen Besonderheiten Rechnung zu tragen.

Im Rahmen der Studie werden Übergänge aus Arbeitslosigkeit oder Arbeitssuche in eine sozialversicherungspflichtige Beschäftigung im Zeitraum 2005-2011 für die Arbeitsmarktregion Lübeck (kreisfreie Stadt Lübeck, Kreis Ostholstein) analysiert. Neben der räumlichen Mobilität im Zuge der Stellenbesetzungsprozesse betrachten wir die Beschäftigungsaufnahmen differenziert nach Merkmalen der Erwerbspersonen (Geschlecht, Alter, Qualifikation, Art des Leistungsbezugs vor Beschäftigungsaufnahme). Eine Differenzierung erfolgt auch hinsichtlich der Art des aufgenommenen Beschäftigungsverhältnisses (Wirtschaftszweig, Tätigkeit). Ein besonderer Schwerpunkt wird hierbei auf die Dauer und die Bedarfsdeckung der Beschäftigung gelegt.

Publikationen zum Projekt:

Analyse der Übergänge in Beschäftigung - Befunde für die Teilregion Stadt Lübeck

Analyse der Übergänge in Beschäftigung - Befunde für die Teilregion Kreis Ostholstein

 

Siehe die auch die Webseite des IAB.

"IMPACT": Internalisation Measures and Policies for All external Cost of Transport

An ex-post evaluation of transport infrastructure charging policy update of the external cost Handbook and impact assessment of future legislative proposals

Eine ex-post Auswertung  von Gebühren für die Nutzung der Infrastruktur im Transportbereich

 

Seventh Framework Programme

Customer: DG MOVE Directorate General for Mobility and Transport (European Commission)

Time Schedule: June 2012 – November 2013

 

 

Project consortium

This project’s consortium consists of five partners, which are all based in the EU. The project work is divided into four work packages. The project co-ordination is carried out by the Association of European Airlines (AEA).

The consortium

AEA Technology plc (AEA) UK
Trasporti e Territorio Srl (TRT)    
Italy
DIW econ GmbH  
Germany
Institute for Regional Research (IfR), Kiel University
Germany
Transport and Environmental Policy Research (TEPR) UK


Background and general project objectives

Article 11(2) of Directive 1999/62/EC amended by Directive 2011/76/EU on the charging of heavy goods vehicles for the use of certain infrastructures requires the European Commission to present a report to the European Parliament and the European Council on the implementation and effects of this Directive. The report shall also analyse, amongst others the effectiveness of the measures foreseen in this Directive in order to direct users toward the most environmentally friendly and efficient transport solutions and shall include information on the introduction of distance-based charges. It shall analyse scientific progress in estimating external costs of transport for the purpose of internalising them and progress towards applying charges to road users and ways of gradually harmonising the charging systems that are applied to commercial vehicles. The report shall also evaluate the use of electronic systems to levy and collect infrastructure and external-cost charges and their degree of interoperability pursuant to Directive 2004/52/EC".

Article 11(3) states also that "The report shall be accompanied, if appropriate, by a proposal to the European Parliament and the Council for further revision of this Directive". The Commission has subsequently included in its working programme 2012-2013 adopted on 15 November 2011 a possible initiative on road charging for 2013 (see COM(2011) 777).

The study conducted by this consortium provides analytical, economic and modelling support to the Commission in preparing this report and this possible initiative. It will include support in drafting an impact assessment which will provide an objective and balanced basis to determine the scope and timing of this future possible initiative on road charging of other possible further initiatives to accompany it in the most effective way including measures outlined in the 2011 Transport White Paper.

 

The study comprehends four tasks:

A        Firstly, it carries out an ex-post evaluation of the EC policy in the field of road infrastructure charging since 1995, including a comparative analysis with charging strategies in other modes, and provides all the necessary data and analysis for the preparation of the Commission report required under the EU legislation.

B        Secondly, the study provides more recent typical unit values of external costs by updating the “Handbook on estimation of external costs in the transport sector”.

C        Thirdly, the consortium supports the preparation of a Commission impact assessment of possible EU policy measures.

D        Fourthly, the consortium contributes to and supports the work of the Commission to organise a stakeholder consultation and make the synthesis of its results.

The consortium collects and analyses all the relevant data regarding road charging applied in the whole EU to road freight transport and with light passenger vehicles with a smaller degree of completeness. On the basis of the analysis, it assists the Commission to develop and design combinations of policy measures with a view to maximising the effectiveness of the possible proposed changes, and then assess them. Any gaps in the available data are filled by the consortium through conducting research.

The evaluation includes the assessment of the functioning of the current road charging rules (including their efficiency and effectiveness) and the cost of the lack of harmonisation (including lost opportunities in terms of efficient use of transport and the transport infrastructure). It deals with economic questions: impact of road charging on the price of transport and of end- products, impact on logistics behaviour, extent to which the charge is passed on to the shipper or is to be borne by the road haulier, impact on the conditions of competition of the road haulage sector in each country, cost of implementation for existing distance based charging systems (costs of toll collect in percentage) and an appreciation of what constitutes acceptable costs of implementation to keep the system efficient, level of use of electronic tolling systems, stage of development and maturity of the market of electronic toll suppliers (expected price reduction), relation between charges levied and revenues (use of revenues) in each individual Member States, and overall macro-economic impacts and impacts on regional development,. The evaluation also estimates the effects on the environment (CO2 and pollutants emissions), on road safety and on congestion. Finally, it also considers subsidiarity issues and the feasibility of European Commission strategies which maximise acceptability by stakeholders.

 

Contribution of the Institute for Regional Research (IfR), Kiel University

Project leader:  Prof. Dr. Johannes Bröcker

Project staff:     Henning Meier, Michael Holtkamp

The IfR supports DIW econ through the provision of content and critical comments in connection with the delivery of task B.

This task consists in updating, in the light of scientific progress and of the changing economic and environmental situation, the Handbook on the estimation of external costs in the transport sector produced within the study concerning the Internalisation Measures and Policies for All external Cost of Transport (IMPACT). The Handbook contains unit values of various kinds of external costs for various categories of vehicles.

The two consortium partners update and complete the unit values of the handbook by paying particular attention, although not exclusive, to road transport. They provide updated unit values:

  • for all major air pollutants, noise, congestion, the construction and maintenance of roads;
  • separately for each type of the whole range of road vehicles;
  • with a division into interurban, suburban and urban roads;
  • with a division according to the time of day.

 

The Institute for Regional Research is mainly involved with the updating of the unit values of the external costs of congestion.

Websites

http://ted.europa.eu/udl?uri=TED:NOTICE:240131-2012:TEXT:EN:HTML

An ex-post evaluation of transport infrastructure charging policy

Update of the external cost Handbook and impact assessment of future legislative proposals 

 

Seventh Framework Programme

Customer: DG MOVE Directorate General for Mobility and Transport (European Commission)

Time Schedule: June 2012 – November 2013

Final Report

 

Project consortium

This project’s consortium consists of five partners, which are all based in the EU. The project work is divided into four work packages. The project co-ordination is carried out by the Association of European Airlines (AEA).

AEA Technology plc (AEA) UK
 Trasporti e Territorio Srl (TRT)      Italy
DIW econ GmbH  
Germany
Institute for Regional Research (IfR), Kiel University
Germany
Transport and Environmental Policy Research (TEPR) UK


Background and general project objectives

Article 11(2) of Directive 1999/62/EC amended by Directive 2011/76/EU on the charging of heavy goods vehicles for the use of certain infrastructures requires the European Commission to present a report to the European Parliament and the European Council on the implementation and effects of this Directive. The report shall also analyse, amongst others the effectiveness of the measures foreseen in this Directive in order to direct users toward the most environmentally friendly and efficient transport solutions and shall include information on the introduction of distance-based charges. It shall analyse scientific progress in estimating external costs of transport for the purpose of internalising them and progress towards applying charges to road users and ways of gradually harmonising the charging systems that are applied to commercial vehicles. The report shall also evaluate the use of electronic systems to levy and collect infrastructure and external-cost charges and their degree of interoperability pursuant to Directive 2004/52/EC".

Article 11(3) states also that "The report shall be accompanied, if appropriate, by a proposal to the European Parliament and the Council for further revision of this Directive". The Commission has subsequently included in its working programme 2012-2013 adopted on 15 November 2011 a possible initiative on road charging for 2013 (see COM(2011) 777).

The study conducted by this consortium provides analytical, economic and modelling support to the Commission in preparing this report and this possible initiative. It will include support in drafting an impact assessment which will provide an objective and balanced basis to determine the scope and timing of this future possible initiative on road charging of other possible further initiatives to accompany it in the most effective way including measures outlined in the 2011 Transport White Paper.

The study comprehends four tasks:

A        Firstly, it carries out an ex-post evaluation of the EC policy in the field of road infrastructure charging since 1995, including a comparative analysis with charging strategies in other modes, and provides all the necessary data and analysis for the preparation of the Commission report required under the EU legislation.

B        Secondly, the study provides more recent typical unit values of external costs by updating the “Handbook on estimation of external costs in the transport sector”.

C        Thirdly, the consortium supports the preparation of a Commission impact assessment of possible EU policy measures.

D        Fourthly, the consortium contributes to and supports the work of the Commission to organise a stakeholder consultation and make the synthesis of its results.

The consortium collects and analyses all the relevant data regarding road charging applied in the whole EU to road freight transport and with light passenger vehicles with a smaller degree of completeness. On the basis of the analysis, it assists the Commission to develop and design combinations of policy measures with a view to maximising the effectiveness of the possible proposed changes, and then assess them. Any gaps in the available data are filled by the consortium through conducting research.

The evaluation includes the assessment of the functioning of the current road charging rules (including their efficiency and effectiveness) and the cost of the lack of harmonisation (including lost opportunities in terms of efficient use of transport and the transport infrastructure). It deals with economic questions: impact of road charging on the price of transport and of end- products, impact on logistics behaviour, extent to which the charge is passed on to the shipper or is to be borne by the road haulier, impact on the conditions of competition of the road haulage sector in each country, cost of implementation for existing distance based charging systems (costs of toll collect in percentage) and an appreciation of what constitutes acceptable costs of implementation to keep the system efficient, level of use of electronic tolling systems, stage of development and maturity of the market of electronic toll suppliers (expected price reduction), relation between charges levied and revenues (use of revenues) in each individual Member States, and overall macro-economic impacts and impacts on regional development,. The evaluation also estimates the effects on the environment (CO2 and pollutants emissions), on road safety and on congestion. Finally, it also considers subsidiarity issues and the feasibility of European Commission strategies which maximise acceptability by stakeholders.

 

Contribution of the Institute for Regional Research (IfR), Kiel University

Project leader:  Prof. Dr. Johannes Bröcker

Project staff:     Henning Meier, Michael Holtkamp

The IfR supports DIW econ through the provision of content and critical comments in connection with the delivery of task B.

This task consists in updating, in the light of scientific progress and of the changing economic and environmental situation, the Handbook on the estimation of external costs in the transport sector produced within the study concerning the Internalisation Measures and Policies for All external Cost of Transport (IMPACT). The Handbook contains unit values of various kinds of external costs for various categories of vehicles.

The two consortium partners update and complete the unit values of the handbook by paying particular attention, although not exclusive, to road transport. They provide updated unit values:

  • for all major air pollutants, noise, congestion, the construction and maintenance of roads;
  • separately for each type of the whole range of road vehicles;
  • with a division into interurban, suburban and urban roads;
  • with a division according to the time of day.

 

The Institute for Regional Research is mainly involved with the updating of the unit values of the external costs of congestion.

Wertschöpfungs- und Beschäftigungseffekte als Folge des Ausbaus der Erneuerbaren Energien in Schleswig-Holstein

Auftraggeber: Gesellschaft für Energie und Klimaschutz Schleswig-Holstein GmbH (EKSH), Prof. Dr. Hans-Jürgen Block

Projektleiter: Prof. Dr. Johannes Bröcker

Bearbeiter: Diplom-Volkswirt Johannes Burmeister, Mitarbeit von Franka Alberty (studentische Hilfskraft)

Projektlaufzeit: 01.09.2013 – 31.05.2014

 

Kurzbeschreibung:

Gegenstand des Projektes ist es, Beschäftigungs- und Einkommenseffekte abzuschätzen, die sich im Zuge der Energiewende aus der verstärkten Produktion Erneuerbarer Energien in Schleswig-Holstein ergeben. Bearbeitet werden die Energiearten Onshore-Windenergie, Photovoltaik und Energiegewinnung aus Biogas sowie der damit verbundene Netzausbau. Es wird unterschieden zwischen Effekten in der Bau- und Nutzungsphase sowie zwischen direkten und indirekten Effekten. Der Schwerpunkt des Projektes liegt auf der Bauphase und bei der Quantifizierung der direkten Beschäftigungs- und Einkommenseffekte. Des weiteren werden Multiplikatoreffekte und fiskalische Effekte abgeschätzt. Wichtige indirekte Effekte, wie beispielsweise die Verdrängung herkömmlicher Energiearten, technologische Externalitäten und die Veränderung des Strompreises, werden qualitativ beschrieben. Schlussendlich werden Beschäftigungs- und Einkommenseffekte abgeschätzt, die sich aus dem Ziel der Landesregierung von 300-400% Selbstversorgung mit Strom aus erneuerbaren Energien bis 2020 ergeben würden.